World Energy Outlook 2007

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The work could not have been achieved without the substantial support and co-operation provided by many government bodies, international organisations, energy companies and research institutions worldwide, notably: Asian Development Bank, European Commission, Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the United Kingdom, IEA Clean Coal Centre, IHS Energy, International Monetary Fund, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Economic Development of New Zealand, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Schlumberger, Statoil, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, UNDP China, US Department of Energy and World Bank. Many international experts provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed early drafts of each chapter. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Part A: Global Energy Prospects – Impact of Developments in China and India Tera Allas Department of Trade and Industry, UK Jun Arima Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Paul Bailey Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, UK J L Bajaj The Energy and Resources Institute, India Paul Baruya IEA Clean Coal Centre, UK Jean-Paul Bouttes EDF, France Günter Brandes Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, Germany Klaus Brendow World Energy Council, UK Nick Butler Cambridge University, UK Antonio Canseco FUELEC, Spain Graham Chapman Energy Edge, UK Xavier Chen BP, China Preston Chiaro Rio Tinto, UK Paul Conway OECD, France Laurent Corbier AREVA, France Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe ATIC Services, France Ananda Covindassamy World Bank, US Renaud Crassous AgroParisTech-CIRED, France William Davie Schlumberger, France Yvo De Boer UNFCCC, Germany 6 World Energy Outlook 2007
Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Simon Dilks Jane Ellis Jorgen Elmeskov Robert Fryklund Stan Gordelier Nadir Guerer Céline Guivarch Reinhard Haas Andrew Hayman Trevor Houser Brian Heath Mikkal Herberg Bert Hofman John Houghton Jean-Charles Hourcade Jan-Hein Jesse Paul Joskow Tor Kartevold Masami Kojima Ken Koyama Ranjit J. Lamech Alessandro Lanza Stephane Lemoine Flynt Leverett Kseniya Lvovsky Michael Lynch Ritu Mathur Joan McNaughton Bert Metz Kentaro Morita Nebosa Nakicenovic Pierre Noel Peter Nolan Francesco Olivieri Kyran O’Sullivan Department of Business Enterprise, and Regulatory Reform, UK Department of Energy, US Department of Economy, Trade and Industry, UK OECD, France OECD, France IHS Inc., US OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, France OPEC, Austria ENPC-CIRED, France Vienna University of Technology, Austria IHS Inc., US China Strategic Advisory, US IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board, France National Bureau of Asian Research, US World Bank, China IPCC, Switzerland CNRS-EHESS-CIRED, France Shell, Netherlands Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US Statoil, Norway World Bank, US The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan World Bank, US Eni SpA, Italy ATIC Services, France New America Foundation, US World Bank, US Strategic Energy & Economic Research, US The Energy and Resources Institute, India Alstom, UK IPCC, Switzerland Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Vienna University of Technology, Austria Cambridge University, UK Cambridge University, UK ENEL, Italy World Bank, US Acknowledgements 7
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59:
of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61:
second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63:
Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65:
high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67:
Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71:
In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 246 and 247:
The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
Page 283 and 284:
Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
Page 293 and 294:
exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
Page 295 and 296:
energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312:
Appliance efficiency improvements w
Page 313 and 314:
FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316:
Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318:
generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320:
CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
Page 333 and 334:
Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
Page 335 and 336:
e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338:
coal resources lie in the provinces
Page 339 and 340:
Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342:
of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344:
An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
Page 347 and 348:
Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
Page 349 and 350:
China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352:
Capacity Requirements In the past t
Page 353 and 354:
to consumers approximately 70% of a
Page 355 and 356:
8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
Page 368 and 369:
Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
Page 372 and 373:
The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
Page 374 and 375:
power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377:
of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
Page 378 and 379:
educing industrial consumption, eit
Page 380 and 381:
towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383:
Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385:
Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387:
improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389:
Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391:
Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
Page 394 and 395:
two-thirds of incremental oil deman
Page 396 and 397:
Of the main final sectors, the tran
Page 398 and 399:
Higher international prices also bo
Page 400 and 401:
128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
Page 404 and 405:
Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409:
Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413:
Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417:
Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419:
the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425:
PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431:
up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433:
Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439:
South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441:
Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443:
ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446:
CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448:
after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450:
Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452:
which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454:
■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
Page 455 and 456:
and production, and in liquefied na
Page 457 and 458:
(because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460:
Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462:
of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464:
Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465 and 466:
CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 467 and 468:
Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470:
Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472:
Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
Page 473 and 474:
80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476:
The transport sector currently cons
Page 477 and 478:
Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
Page 479 and 480:
Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
Page 485 and 486:
Other Sectors The services sector a
Page 487 and 488:
from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493:
Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495:
and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497:
expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
Page 500 and 501:
Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503:
come from offshore non-associated g
Page 504 and 505:
Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507:
98 billion tonnes, principally in J
Page 508 and 509:
Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
Page 510 and 511:
15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
Page 512 and 513:
Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
Page 514 and 515:
India's coal-fired power plants are
Page 516 and 517:
Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
Page 518 and 519:
Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521:
8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523:
India receives abundant solar radia
Page 524 and 525:
in power generation alone is estima
Page 526 and 527:
In 2005, revenues from electricity
Page 528 and 529:
Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534:
CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536:
Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538:
energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544:
Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546:
Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
Page 547 and 548:
1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552:
to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554:
Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556:
Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558:
Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559:
tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565:
period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569:
Oil and Gas The production profile
Page 570 and 571:
Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573:
in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577:
Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579:
focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581:
The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583:
Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587:
Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589:
Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591:
ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595:
Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 618 and 619:
Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623:
Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
Page 626 and 627:
Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629:
Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
Page 637 and 638:
Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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