World Energy Outlook 2007

Coal remains the dominant fuel in China’s energy mix (Figure 9.1). Coal
consumption is expected to grow most rapidly in the near term, boosting coal’s
share of total primary energy demand by three percentage points to a peak of
66% around 2010, before falling back to 63% by 2030. The power sector
remains the main coal user throughout the projection period, accounting for
more than two-thirds of the incremental demand. Industry use also grows
significantly, in particular in the near term, during which output of heavy
industries grows rapidly. After 2010, coal use for coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants
is expected to rise rapidly, reaching 72 Mtoe in 2030.
China’s oil consumption increases from 6.7 mb/d in 2005 to 11.1 mb/d in
2015 and 16.5 mb/d in 2030 – an average growth of 3.7% per year. More than
two-thirds of the increase comes from the transport sector whose share in total
oil demand rises sharply, from 35% in 2005 to 55% in 2030. The country’s
oil-import dependence increases sharply, with imports increasing from
3.1 mb/d in 2005 to 13.1 mb/d in 2030. In 2000, imports were only
1.4 mb/d. China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world’s secondbiggest
oil importer, after the United States, around 2010. It will import as
much as all 27 EU member states combined in 2030.
Use of natural gas increases faster than any other fossil fuel over the Outlook
period, at an annual rate of 6.4%; but the share of natural gas in total demand
reaches only 5% in 2030 – up from 2% in 2005. In the residential and services
sectors, the share of natural gas in total energy use rises from 3.3% in 2005 to
10% in 2030; in the industrial sector, its share rises from 2.6% to 4.6%; in the
power generation fuel mix, the rise is from 1% to 3.6%. The National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released in September 2007
a new policy on the use of natural gas, giving priority to urban consumption
and prohibiting new gas-fired power plants in coal-abundant areas and the use
of natural gas as feedstock for methanol production (NDRC, 2007a).
The share of nuclear power in total energy demand rises from 0.8% in 2005
but, despite rapid growth, does not exceed 2% by 2030. The share of hydro
slightly increases, from 2% in 2005 to 2.3% in 2030. The share of biomass
drops from 13% in 2005 to 6% by 2030, reflecting a continuing shift towards
greater use of modern forms of energy. The share of other renewables 3 increases
steeply, but still only accounts for 0.9% of primary energy demand in 2030.
Power generation accounts for 53% of the increase in China’s energy demand
over the Outlook period. Its share of primary demand increases from 39% in
2005 to 46% in 2030. Thanks to improvements in power station efficiency, the
rate of growth in power-sector energy demand (3.9%) is lower than that of
final electricity demand (5.1%). Coal dominates inputs to power generation,
3. Other renewables data in 2005 were estimated from various sources as they are not available in IEA
statistics.
288 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS