World Energy Outlook 2007

emissions began to rise again in 2002, as coal consumption spiked. Coal use
accounts for 70 to 80% of SO 2
emissions. In 2005, SO 2
intensity in China was
almost three times higher than the average level in the OECD (OECD, 2007).
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, thanks to reduced coal use, mainly in
industry and power generation, SO 2
emissions peak around 2010 and decline
afterwards. In 2030 they are around 20% lower than in the Reference Scenario.
NO x
emissions stabilise around their 2010 level and are 20% lower in 2030
compared with the Reference Scenario. As in most other countries, vehicle
emissions are the main source of urban NO x
pollution. Road transport policies,
including a shift to mass transportation and encouraging the use of
alternative fuels, allow NO x
to stabilise, after a sharp rise to 2010. Particulate
matter, even more than in the Reference Scenario, continues to fall, following
a trend that started in the mid-1990s.
35
Figure 11.4: China’s Local Pollution Trends in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
million tonnes
30
25
20
15
10
SO 2
NO x
11
5
PM 2.5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions
The policies and measures in China analysed in the Alternative Policy Scenario,
while largely intended to alleviate growing energy imports and worsening local
pollution, have the additional benefit of curbing the growth in the country’s
energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions. Climate change poses a particularly
important threat to China (Box 11.1). Lower overall energy consumption,
combined with a larger share of less carbon-intensive fuels in the primary energy
mix, yields savings of 22.5% in emissions by 2030, compared with the Reference
Scenario. The total avoided emissions are an impressive 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt).
Chapter 11 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 369