World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 1
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS
World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to grow
by more than half between 2005 and 2030, at an average annual rate of
1.8%. Demand reaches 17.7 billion toe, compared with 11.4 billion toe in
2005 – a rise of 55%. Global energy intensity – total energy use per unit of
gross domestic product – falls by 1.8% per year over 2005-2030.
Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of primary energy, accounting for
84% of the overall increase in global demand between 2005 and 2030. Oil
remains the single largest fuel, though its share falls from 35% to 32%. Oil
demand reaches 116 mb/d in 2030, 32 mb/d, or 37%, up on 2006. Coal
sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73%
between 2005 and 2030, pushing its share of total energy demand up from
25% to 28%. The share of natural gas increases more modestly, from
21% to 22%. Electricity use almost doubles, its share of final energy
consumption rising from 17% to 22%. Some $22 trillion of investment in
supply infrastructure is needed to meet projected global demand.
Developing countries, whose economies and populations are growing
fastest, contribute 74% of the increase in global primary energy use. China
and India alone account for 45% of the increase. OECD countries account
for one-fifth and the transition economies the remaining 6%. China
overtakes the United States soon after 2010 to become the world’s biggest
energy consumer. In 2005, US demand was more than one-third larger.
Although new oil-production capacity additions from greenfield projects
are expected to increase over the next five years, it is very uncertain whether
they will be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing
fields and keep pace with the projected increase in demand in the Reference
Scenario. A supply-side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt
escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, global primary energy demand grows by
1.3% per year over 2005-2030, 0.5 percentage points less than in the
Reference Scenario – resulting in an 11% saving in 2030. Oil demand is
14 mb/d lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario – equal to the entire
current output of the United States, Canada and Mexico combined. The
gap in energy demand between the two scenarios widens progressively over
the Outlook period, as opportunities grow for installing more energyefficient
equipment.
In the High Growth Scenario, faster economic growth in China and India
boosts their energy demand vis-à-vis the Reference Scenario. The stimulus
to demand provided by stronger economic growth more than offsets the
depressive effect of higher international energy prices. Worldwide, the
increase in primary energy demand amounts to 6% in 2030.
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 73