World Energy Outlook 2007

The most striking difference concerns coal. While in the Reference Scenario we
project China as a growing net importer of coal over the Outlook period, in the
Alternative Policy Scenario China remains largely self-sufficient in coal. Net
imports of coal peak around 24 Mtce in 2015 and decline to 4 Mtce in 2030.
Coking coal exports increase, as domestic demand is significantly lower than in
the Reference Scenario. By 2030, Chinese coal demand is 23% lower than in the
Reference Scenario. However, it still reaches 2 632 Mtce, 68% higher than today.
Unlike oil and coal, natural gas import needs increase in the Alternative Policy
Scenario, compared with the Reference Scenario (Figure 11.3). As for oil,
production from Chinese gas fields is assumed to be the same as in the
Reference Scenario, increasing from 51 bcm in 2005 to 111 bcm in 2030, but
because gas demand goes up faster, imports rise even faster, reaching 158 bcm
in 2030 – 30 bcm, or 24%, more than in the Reference Scenario. By 2030,
these additional gas imports would require the construction of 6 additional
terminals, were imports to be all in the form of LNG. While financing these
terminals would not be difficult, securing affordable LNG supplies might be.
Mtoe
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Figure 11.3: China’s Net Energy Imports in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2030
13.1 mb/d
9.7 mb/d
128 bcm
158 bcm
133 Mt
Oil Gas Coal
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
14 Mt
Environmental Implications
Local Air Pollution 4
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, emissions of SO 2
, NO x
and particulate
matter (PM 2.5
) are lower than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 11.4). SO 2
4. The projections in this section are based on analysis carried out by the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) on behalf of the IEA.
368 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS