World Energy Outlook 2007

in the Reference Scenario to 1 481 Mtce (Table 1.17). Russia and Australia are
the main sources of the additional coal needs in China and India. The increase
in China’s coal imports is roughly equal to 50% of Australia’s current coal exports.
1
Table 1.17: Net Inter-Regional Hard Coal Trade* in Selected Regions in
the High Growth Scenario (Mtce)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario in 2030
2005 2015 2030 Mtce %
OECD North America –19 –63 –106 –20 23
OECD Europe 186 235 249 9 4
OECD Pacific 11 –70 –237 –146 160
Asia 228 260 245 –37 –13
Oceania –216 –330 –482 –108 29
Russia –48 –103 –126 –52 69
China –48 112 199 106 115
India 36 125 282 39 16
Indonesia –98 –180 –200 –16 9
* Negative figures denote exports; positive figures imports.
Non-Fossil Energy Sources
Nuclear power is marginally higher than in the Reference Scenario, with all of
the difference assumed to come from China and India. Their combined
capacity is 11 GW, or 23%, higher in 2030. The use of modern renewable
energy sources is boosted by higher fossil-fuel prices, increasing by 5% relative
to the Reference Scenario in 2030.
Electricity Use and Generation
Higher GDP growth boosts final demand for electricity globally and, therefore,
fuel inputs to power generation – the major driver of higher energy demand in
this scenario. Power generation costs rise in line with higher fossil-fuel prices,
pushing up final prices to consumers. Yet this has little impact on demand. 14 In
most of the regions that see higher GDP growth, the positive effect of that
growth on demand more than outweighs the negative effect of higher prices.
Coal-fired generation – mostly in China and India – accounts for most of the
increase in power needs in absolute terms (Figure 1.24). Natural gas accounts
for most of the rest of the global increase in generation.
14. See WEO-2006 (Chapter 11) for a discussion of the price sensitivity of demand for electricity and
other fuels.
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 113