World Energy Outlook 2007

Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions
Global Trends
Rising global fossil energy use will continue to drive up energy-related CO 2
emissions over the projection period (Figure 5.1). A range of government policies,
including those intended to address climate change, air pollution and energy
security, have helped to slow the rate of growth in emissions in some countries in
recent years, but have not stopped it. In the Reference Scenario, which examines
the implications of governments adopting no new policies, world emissions jump
by 57% between 2005 and 2030 to 41.9 gigatonnes, an average rate of growth of
1.8% per year. The increase is 27% in the Alternative Policy Scenario (1.0% per
year) and 68% (2.1% per year) in the High Growth Scenario. By comparison,
emissions grew by 1.7% per year over 1990-2005. Emissions in 2030 in the
Reference Scenario are 1.5 Gt higher than in last year’s Outlook, mainly because of
higher coal use in China and India, while emissions in the Alternative Policy
Scenario are lower as more policies are under consideration. Although emissions
grow in all three scenarios, the path between 2005 and 2030 differs markedly, with
important consequences for the prospects for reducing emissions and stabilising
concentrations beyond 2030.
50
Figure 5.1: Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions by Scenario
billion tonnes
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
High Growth Scenario
Reference
Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
68%
57%
27%
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Emissions continue to rise in all regions through to 2030 in the Reference
Scenario, but peak and begin to decline in the OECD in 2015 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario causing global emissions to stabilise by around
2025. In the OECD Europe and Pacific regions, emissions in 2030 are lower
than current levels (Figure 5.2). In OECD North America, emissions level off
soon after 2015 and then decline to 2030 to 6% above that of 2005.
192 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA