World Energy Outlook 2007

to levels in the United States. China also introduced an energy-efficiency
labelling programme, “China Energy Label” for household refrigerators and air
conditioners in 2005. Washing machines and central air conditioners have since
been added; other appliances, such as flat-screen televisions, are to be included
in the future (Fridley et al., 2007). In the Alternative Policy Scenario, it is
assumed that efficiency standards and labelling requirements are met and
strengthened for the appliances currently covered by reach standards. Similar
reach standards are applied to other appliances with some lags. In 2030, the
average new refrigerator is assumed to be 32% more efficient than the 2005
model. 7 Air conditioners will be 35% more efficient than now.
Different building codes and standards are already in place for three regional
zones: the heating zone, the hot-summer cold-winter zone, and the hotsummer
warm-winter zone, delineated according to winter and summer
temperatures. There are also various local standards. The 2007 National
Standard for Residential Buildings, which aims to harmonise the current
buildings standards, is under consideration. The Alternative Policy Scenario
assumes that more stringent building codes are implemented, such that
building standards reach today’s OECD levels in 2030.
The better enforcement of existing standards, more stringent standards and
labelling and tougher building codes which are assumed in the Alternative
Policy Scenario ensure faster market penetration of efficient products, so
achieving the additional efficiency improvements. For this to happen, it is also
assumed that China establishes a set of implementation and monitoring systems
for appliance energy efficiency standards (that have not yet been adopted) and
new building codes. Mandatory and voluntary certification needs to be
strengthened and more stringent penalties introduced to ensure the phase-out
of inefficient products (Liu, 2006; Jin and Li, 2005). Since some more efficient
appliances are more costly in the short term, fiscal incentives such as a
reduction of value-added tax for more efficient appliances will need to be
offered to consumers and manufacturers. Faster deployment of advanced
energy insulation for building and of conservation measures such as combined
space heating and cooling systems, is also assumed. Solar water heating in
residential buildings has been successfully introduced in rural China and is
assumed to be encouraged vigorously in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
11
Summary of Results
China’s residential energy use is 18% lower in 2030 in the Alternative Policy
Scenario than in the Reference Scenario. Electricity savings make up 30% of the
total. Even so, residential electricity use more than triples, as living standards
7. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, the efficiency improvements vary according to the size of the
refrigerator. For example, by 2030, refrigerators with volume of 220 litres will be as efficient as
European labels A refrigerators.
Chapter 11 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 383