World Energy Outlook 2007

Reference Scenario
Energy Demand
The importance of China and India in the world’s energy outlook is set to
continue to grow steadily over the coming decades. Rapid economic development,
industrialisation, urbanisation and improved lifestyles will undoubtedly drive
energy demand yet higher, though at a less rapid rate than in the recent past. In
our Reference Scenario, which illustrates the outcome were there to be no new
government policies, China’s primary energy needs expand from 1 742 million
tonnes of oil equivalent in 2005 to 3 819 Mtoe in 2030, an average annual rate
of increase of 3.2%. India’s needs grow even faster, by 3.6% per year, from
537 Mtoe to 1 299 Mtoe (Table 2.1). 1 Their energy needs grow much faster than
in the rest of the world. China and India account for 45% of the total increase in
world energy demand over the projection period, and 82% of the increase in coal
demand (Figure 2.1). Today, the two countries together account for 20% of the
world’s primary energy use. By 2030, this share increases to 29%. Their share of
Figure 2.1: Shares of China and India in the Increase in World Primary Energy
Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Rest of
renewables
China
India
Rest of the world
Total
1. There are some important differences between IEA energy statistics for China and India and official
national data, because of methodological differences and statistical discrepancies. IEA data for total
primary energy use are markedly higher than official estimates for China, largely because the latter do
not include traditional biomass. The differences are smaller for India, but there are significant
differences at the sectoral level. See Box 8.1 in Chapter 8 and Box 15.1 in Chapter 15 for further
details.
118 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA