World Energy Outlook 2007

$103 billion in 2005. The share in GDP of trade in goods, however, was only
28% in 2005, compared with 64% in China. India currently contributes some
1% to global trade. 8
According to the World Trade Organization, the share of fuel imports
(including mainly crude oil but also mineral fuels and feedstocks, lubricants
and related materials) in India’s total imports increased to 37% in 2005,
up from 29% in 1990, largely the result of an increase in oil prices.
Fuel exports have also risen, from less than 3% in 1990 to 12% of total exports
in 2005 (Figure 14.5). Exports will rise further if oil-refinery plans go ahead
(see Chapter 17). Expansion of refineries in India accounted for almost
a quarter of the total increase in world refining from 1996 to 2006.
India’s trade balance went into deficit in 2003 and the deficit is likely
to increase in the near term. However, India’s large foreign exchange reserves,
which now exceed $200 billion, and its low levels of external debt provide
a cushion against any external crisis.
Figure 14.5: Share of Fuel in Value of India’s Imports and Exports
160
140
billion dollars (2006)
120
100
80
60
40
20
14
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fuel exports Other exports Fuel imports Other imports
Note: Fuels include mainly crude oil but also mineral fuels and feedstocks, lubricants and related
materials (SITC section 3).
Source: WTO database, available at www.wto.org.
8. See Table 3.1 in Chapter 3 for a perspective on India’s share in global trade compared with other
countries.
Chapter 14 – Political, Economic and Demographic Context 435