World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 13
FOCUS ON THE COASTAL REGION
HIGHLIGHTS
The coastal region of China is the most economically advanced part of
the country, and includes clusters of mega-cities in the Pearl River
Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim. Eleven provinces located
in the coastal region produce 60% of China’s GDP and over 90% of
exports, with only 39% of its population. In 2005, the GDP of the
coastal region amounted to $1.4 trillion (at market exchange rates),
bigger than that of Canada.
The coastal region has been the main driver of China’s increasing
energy use because of a high concentration of export industries,
investment and urbanisation. The region accounted for 70% of energy
demand growth in China between 1996 and 2005. Over the Outlook
period, export-driven demand is expected to decline relative to
expansion of domestic demand in the coastal region, leading a more
general change in China’s energy-consumption pattern.
In the Reference Scenario, coastal energy demand is projected to climb
from 954 Mtoe in 2005, which exceeds the current demand of Japan,
Korea, Australia, and New Zealand combined, to 2 050 Mtoe in 2030,
at an average annual growth rate of 3.1%. The shift towards a more
services-oriented economy causes the share of the coastal region in
Chinese industrial energy demand to drop from 74% in 2005 to 57%
in 2030. Meanwhile, the booming middle-income class in the region
increases its consumption of goods and services, boosting demand for
mobility, thermal comfort and electrically powered equipment and
appliances. Electricity demand and natural gas demand will grow much
faster than in China as a whole.
The coastal provinces become increasingly dependent upon
imported fuels, either from inland Chinese provinces or from the
international markets. By 2030, 68% of coastal coal demand is met
by supply from the inland provinces and 15% from abroad, with the
remaining 17% being produced in the coastal region itself. Gas
imports are expected to increase dramatically – reaching 100 bcm in
2030. The West-East pipeline will carry to the coastal region both
gas produced in inland regions and imported gas; and LNG imports
will surge. Rapid infrastructure development is needed to fuel the
coastal economy.
Chapter 13 – Focus on the Coastal Region 403