World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 10.7: China’s Coal Production by Type and Region (Mtce)
2005 2015 2030
Coastal
Steam coal 238 259 305
Coking coal 12 11 16
Inland
Steam coal 1 142 1 978 2 633
Coking coal 244 356 380
Total
Steam coal 1 380 2 238 2 939
Coking coal 256 366 395
The projected expansion of coal output in the Reference Scenario hinges on the
continued restructuring and modernisation of the coal-mining industry and
massive investment in the transport infrastructure to move coal to market.
Average productivity, at around 500 tonnes per man-year, is extremely low in
China’s coal mines, mainly because of the very large number of people working
in small mines. The manual mining methods used in small mines, which
number at least 20 000, often yield just a hundred tonnes per man-year. In
contrast, China also has many highly productive coal mines employing large
capacity equipment. For example, Shenhua Group operates underground
mines on the border of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia that are considered to be
the most efficient in the world. Five mines, Daliuta, Bulianta, Yujialiang,
Kangjiatan and Shangwan, have an annual output of over 10 million tonnes
each with an overall productivity of over 30 000 tonnes per man-year. In 2006,
Bulianta became the first underground mine to have produced over
20 Mt in a single year. At Yujialiang, new longwall mining equipment will
shortly be installed to create a 413-metre coal face, the world’s widest, to cut
panels of coal up to 6 000 metres long (Chadwick, 2007).
Coal demand has been underestimated in successive five-year plans, with the
result that the sustained high GDP growth could not be fuelled by flexing the
output from the existing and new Key State-Owned Coal Mines (KSOCM),
large though this has become. Instead, it has been the huge growth in output
from Township and Village Coal Mines (TVCM) that has balanced supply
with demand, but at a cost. These mines are dangerous places where to work
(see Box 10.3). Beyond that, the very low extraction rate of around 15% means
that China is forsaking a large part of its coal resource. The government had
planned to close 10 000 TVCMs, but this policy was not fully implemented as
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Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 337