World Energy Outlook 2007

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equilibrium for international trade in energy and non-energy goods and services, energy and other commodity prices and GDP in the rest of the world by major region. The principal channels through which energy markets are affected by faster Chinese and Indian growth are as follows: Higher GDP growth in China and India leads to both increased exports and imports of goods and services, and boosts net imports of energy and other commodities, pushing up international prices. Other countries benefit from stronger demand from China and India for their exports of goods and services, including commodities. Oil-exporting countries receive a particularly strong boost to both the volume and value of their exports. Exporters of high-tech manufactured goods and services also benefit from stronger Chinese and Indian demand. Increased exports of manufactured goods and services from China and India offset at least part of the economic stimulus in the rest of the world. Those countries with a pattern of exports similar to that of China and India are most affected by increased Chinese and Indian competition. Higher commodity prices, including energy prices, damage the terms of trade and income in net importing countries, offsetting part or all of any boost to income provided by stronger demand from China and India. In all countries, higher energy prices push down demand – especially in the long term – offsetting part or all of any stimulus to demand provided by the higher economic growth that results from increased trade with China and India. The net impact on national income and output, and on energy demand and trade, varies by region according to the structure of the economy, the degree of dependence on energy imports and the potential for raising energy production in response to higher international prices. The detailed results can be found in Chapter 3. 70 World Energy Outlook 2007
PART A GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA
Page 1 and 2:
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4:
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6:
FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10:
Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12:
Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14:
Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16:
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18:
Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78: standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
Page 81 and 82: Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84: Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
Page 85 and 86: Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
Page 87 and 88: It is certainly possible that decli
Page 89 and 90: Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
Page 91 and 92: developments in clean coal technolo
Page 93 and 94: in the form of coking coal, grow st
Page 95 and 96: (Table 1.8). India and China experi
Page 97 and 98: Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100: policy implementation is critical:
Page 101 and 102: transition economies, because there
Page 103 and 104: 15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
Page 105 and 106: Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
Page 107 and 108: Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
Page 111 and 112: Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
Page 113 and 114: The regional effect on oil imports
Page 115 and 116: in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
Page 117: The High Growth Scenario projection
Page 120 and 121: Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
Page 229 and 230:
■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
Page 368 and 369:
Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383:
Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389:
Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
Page 404 and 405:
Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409:
Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411:
Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534:
CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538:
energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544:
Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587:
Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589:
Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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