World Energy Outlook 2007

15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7% for the transition economies and
9.5% for the OECD.
In line with last year’s Outlook, we have assumed that international oil
prices in the Alternative Policy Scenario are the same as in the Reference
Scenario. As global oil demand is lower, the call on oil from OPEC
members and other exporting countries is reduced. However, the
investment and production policies of OPEC member countries are
assumed to be adjusted accordingly, resulting in a rate of utilisation of
installed production capacities in the longer term similar to that in the
Reference Scenario.
OPEC production grows only half as fast as in the Reference Scenario,
reaching 42 mb/d in 2015 and 47 mb/d in 2030 (Table 1.11). Its market
share rises from 42% now to 46% in 2030, but this is six percentage points
lower than in the Reference Scenario. The risk of an oil-supply crunch
within ten years, as discussed in the previous section, would clearly be
reduced in the Alternative Policy Scenario, as demand grows more slowly.
1
Table 1.11: Oil Production in the Alternative Policy Scenario
(mb/d)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario
in 2030
2006 2015 2030 2006- mb/d %
2030*
OPEC 35.8 41.7 46.6 1.1% –13.9 –23.0
Non-OPEC 47.0 50.4 53.4 0.5% 0.3 0.5
World** 84.6 94.1 102.3 0.8% –14.0 –12.0
* Average annual rate of growth. ** World total includes processing gains.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, all the major net oil-importing regions
except OECD Pacific – OECD North America and Europe, China, India and
the rest of developing Asia – see their oil imports rise over the projection
period, but markedly less than in the Reference Scenario. OECD imports reach
a peak of 31 mb/d around 2015 and then begin to fall, though they are still
higher in 2030 than in 2006. In the Reference Scenario, they rise
continuously. By contrast, oil imports into developing countries continue to
increase over the whole period, but more slowly. The biggest reduction in
imports occurs in developing Asia (Figure 1.17).
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 101