World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in the High Growth Scenario
Difference from Reference Scenario
Average annual Average annual Level of GDP
growth rate, growth rate, in
2005-2030 2005-2030 2030
OECD 2.1% –0.06% –1.4%
North America 2.4% –0.02% –0.4%
United States 2.3% –0.04% –1.0%
Europe 1.9% –0.10% –2.4%
Pacific 1.8% –0.07% –1.8%
Japan 1.3% –0.07% –1.7%
Transition economies 3.6% 0.02% 0.4%
Russia 3.5% 0.03% 0.6%
Developing countries 6.2% 1.06% 30.2%
Developing Asia 6.9% 1.28% 37.3%
China 7.5% 1.50% 45.2%
India 7.8% 1.50% 45.1%
Middle East 4.4% 0.41% 10.9%
Africa 4.0% 0.05% 1.4%
Latin America 3.3% 0.06% 1.4%
Brazil 3.1% –0.00% –0.1%
World 4.3% 0.61% 16.3%
European Union 1.9% –0.10% –2.4%
Regional shares in global GDP change markedly in the High Growth Scenario.
The shares of China and India, unsurprisingly, increase even more substantially
than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 3.11). By 2030, their combined share
of world GDP at market exchange rates reaches 21% (marginally below that of
the European Union) compared with about 16% in the Reference Scenario
(Figure 3.12).
Higher growth rates in China and India are assumed not to induce dramatic
changes in the structure of their economies. At the aggregate level, the share of
industry remains the same as in the Reference Scenario, the negative effect of
higher energy prices on energy-intensive industrial production offsetting their
higher shares on world industrial markets associated with higher internal
demand and with their relative gains in competitiveness. There is nonetheless
some shift from heavy industry towards lighter manufacturing. There are
bigger changes in other regions. Resource-rich countries such as Russia and
Middle Eastern oil exporters, suffer losses in competitiveness in non-resource
156 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA