World Energy Outlook 2007

Fossil Fuels
In the High Growth Scenario, global demand for oil grows by 1.5% per year over
the projection period – 0.1 percentage points faster than in the Reference Scenario.
Demand reaches 120 mb/d in 2030 – 3.6 mb/d more than in the Reference
Scenario. Demand is 6.7 mb/d higher in China and India combined and
0.4 mb/d higher in the Middle East. This offsets a 2.4-mb/d drop in the OECD,
concentrated in North America, and an overall 1 mb/d decline in other developing
Asian countries, Latin America and Africa (Figure 1.21). The fall in demand is
biggest in North America, where GDP growth is reduced most and where
demand is relatively sensitive to international prices because of low excise taxes.
Figure 1.21: Change in World Primary Oil Demand by Region in 2030 in
the High Growth Scenario Relative to the Reference Scenario
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Rest of developing Asia
Africa
Latin America
Transition economies
Middle East
India
China
–2 -–1 0 1 2 3 4 5
mb/d
2015 2030
World oil production adjusts upwards to meet the higher level of oil demand in the
High Growth Scenario. Most of the additional output comes from non-OPEC
countries, where higher prices bring forth more investment and capacity. 13 OPEC
countries are assumed to fill the difference between total world demand and non-
OPEC supply, accounting for about one-quarter of the total increase in production.
Non-conventional oil in China and North America (Oil sands in Canada and CTL
in the United States) and conventional oil in the transition economies account for
the bulk of the increase in non-OPEC output (Figure 1.22).
13. In the High Growth Scenario, additional oil output in China and India is projected by assessing
the impact of enhanced recovery techniques on a field-by-field basis, whereas additional output from
the other non-OPEC producers is based on a top-down approach.
110 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA