World Energy Outlook 2007

Box 11.1: Impact of Climate Change on China
The energy projections in this Outlook make climate change an important
challenge for the country. China’s first National Climate Change
Programme (NDRC, 2007), published in June 2007, recognises this and
notes that climate change “will bring about significant impacts on China’s
natural ecosystems and social economic system in the future.” This finding
echoes those of an IPCC report on impacts of climate change, released a
couple of months previously (IPCC, 2007). The issues of most concern are
rising sea levels, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and
glacial retreat in the north-west.
Even without global warming, China’s climate presents major challenges.
Most of China already experiences seasonal extremes of temperature,
precipitation is unevenly distributed and natural disasters have had severe
impact. More than one-quarter of China’s area is already affected by
desertification. Over 18 000 km of coastline and more than 5 000 islands
are at risk in the event of a rise in sea level. Any exacerbation of these
situations therefore poses a grave threat.
Because of the complexity of the climate system, it is difficult to foresee the
regional and local impact of climate change. But there is a consensus among
scientists that the repercussions of changes in average temperature will be
severe and wide-ranging:
Agriculture: Without effective adaptation measures, agricultural yields are
likely to decline and costs to rise. Droughts will become more frequent and
longer, further aggravating desertification and reducing productivity; and
the frequency of the outbreak of animal disease could increase.
Forests and ecosystems: Effects are already being observed, from shrinking
glaciers in the north-west to a thinning of the Tibetan permafrost. Further
warming would affect the geographical distribution of forest cover, increase
the frequency of insect infestations and disease outbreaks, accelerate the
drying-up of lakes and the shrinking of glaciers, and threaten biodiversity.
Water: Further warming would worsen the already declining runoff in
China’s main rivers and increase the frequency of extreme weather events,
such as droughts in the north and floods in the west and south.
The coast: Sea levels have long been rising in China but the trend is
accelerating, making adaptation ever more difficult. Hurricanes and
storms are likely to become more frequent, aggravating coastal erosion.
Groundwater and surface water are likely to become more saline and the
homes of millions of people could be flooded.
The greatest danger to human health may be that of more frequent and
intense heat waves, which are debilitating in themselves, because of heat
stress, but also spread diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.
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Chapter 11 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 371