World Energy Outlook 2007

China added 18 GW of supercritical plant in 2006, bringing total supercritical
capacity to about 30 GW. There are about 100 GW of supercritical plant on
order, implying that the share of supercritical technology in new capacity will
increase significantly over the next few years. The average efficiency of coalfired
generation is expected to improve from 32% in 2005 to 39% in 2030.
Oil plays a limited role in power generation, accounting for 2.4% of the total
in 2005. Its share is projected to fall to less than 1% by 2030. Natural gas
accounted for just 1% of total generation in 2005. Although gas is not
competitive with coal for power generation under current market conditions,
China is pursuing policies to diversify the electricity mix and to reduce local
pollution, which could boost the share of gas in certain regions. In the
Reference Scenario, gas-fired generation is expected to reach 313 TWh by
2030, nearly 4% of total electricity generation.
In recent years, gas-fired generators have suffered from supply constraints and
high gas prices. An import infrastructure for LNG is being established as
demand increases beyond domestic supply. China received its first LNG
shipments at the new Shenzhen terminal in 2006. A second terminal is under
construction in the Fujian province, which is expected to be operational in
2009, while construction of a third, in the Shanghai area, started in early 2007,
for completion in summer 2009. Gas-fired generation will be concentrated
mainly in coastal areas. Its rate of expansion will remain linked to the pace of
development of the gas infrastructure and the price of imported LNG – all of
which are uncertain.
Nuclear generation amounted to 53 TWh, or 2.1% of total generation in
2005. It is projected to rise five-fold, with its share increasing to 3% of the total
by 2030. Installed capacity was 6.6 GW in 2005. Two new reactors were
connected to the grid in 2006 and 2007, bringing the total number of reactors
in operation to 11 and installed capacity to 8.6 GW. 10 Four reactors with a total
capacity of 3.2 GW are under construction. They are expected to be completed
by 2010-2011.
The government’s target is to have 40 GW in place by 2020, implying that
China must add to the plants now operating 31 GW of new plants, as well as
18 GW of nuclear capacity under construction in that year. Although efforts
to build more nuclear power plants have been intensified in recent years, the
target set by the government seems ambitious given the current level of
development, the long construction times and the current global bottlenecks
in nuclear component manufacturing, which impose extended delays on
delivery. In the Reference Scenario, installed nuclear capacity reaches 21 GW
in 2020 and 31 GW in 2030. In this scenario, all new nuclear power plants are
assumed to be built in coastal areas.
10. Data are taken from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s PRIS database, available
at www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/.
346 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS