World Energy Outlook 2007

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List of Tables Introduction 1. World Population Growth 60 2. World Real GDP Growth in the Reference Scenario 62 3. Fossil-Fuel Price Assumptions in the Reference Scenario 64 Part A: Global Energy Prospects: Impact of Developments in India and China Chapter 1. Global Energy Trends 1.1 World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario 74 1.2 World Primary Oil Demand in the Reference Scenario 80 1.3 World Oil Production in the Reference Scenario 82 1.4 World Primary Natural Gas Demand in the Reference Scenario 85 1.5 World Primary Natural Gas Production in the Reference Scenario 87 1.6 World Primary Coal Demand in the Reference Scenario 89 1.7 World Coal Production in the Reference Scenario 90 1.8 World Electricity Demand in the Reference Scenario 93 1.9 Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure in the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030 95 1.10 World Primary Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario 97 1.11 Oil Production in the Alternative Policy Scenario 101 1.12 World Primary Natural Gas Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario 102 1.13 Change in Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 2006-2030 107 1.14 World Primary Energy Demand by Region in the High Growth Scenario 109 1.15 World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the High Growth Scenario 109 1.16 Net Oil Imports by Major Importing Region in the High Growth Scenario 111 1.17 Net Inter-Regional Hard Coal Trade in Selected Regions in the High Growth Scenario 113 1.18 Change in Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure in the High Growth Scenario, 2006-2030 114 Chapter 2. Energy Trends in China and India 2.1 Primary Energy Demand in China and India in the Reference Scenario 119 30 World Energy Outlook 2007
2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy Consumption in China and India in the Reference Scenario 123 2.3 Oil Production in China and India in the Reference Scenario 125 2.4 Primary Energy Demand in China and India in the Alternative Policy Scenario 132 Chapter 3. International Trade and the World Economy 3.1 Share of China, India and the United States in World Trade in Goods and Services 141 3.2 Fossil-Fuel Prices in the High Growth Scenario 152 3.3 World Real GDP Growth in the High Growth Scenario 156 Chapter 4. The World’s Energy Security 4.1 Increase in World Primary Oil Demand by Region and Scenario, 2006-2030 166 4.2 Oil Net Imports in China and India 168 4.3 Net Natural Gas Imports in China and India 172 4.4 Natural Gas Imports into China and India by Source 173 4.5 Net Hard Coal Trade in China and India 174 4.6 Main Policy Responses in China and India to Rising Energy Insecurity 176 4.7 Volume of Oil Stocks to Ensure 45 Days of Net Imports in China and India 189 Chapter 5. Global Environmental Repercussions 5.1 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region and Scenario 199 5.2 Top Five Countries for Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario 200 5.3 Per-Capita Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region and Scenario 202 5.4 CO 2 Concentrations and Emissions 206 5.5 World Energy Demand in the 450 Stabilisation Case 209 5.6 Renewables-Based Electricity Generation 213 5.7 Share of Coal in CO 2 Emissions in the Reference Scenario 216 Chapter 6. Energy Policy Ramifications 6.1 Status of CDM Projects in China and India, August 2007 240 Part B: China’s Energy Prospects Chapter 7. Political, Economic and Demographic Context 7.1 China’s Importance in the World Economy 246 7.2 Populations of the Top 20 Urban Agglomerations in 2005 257 Table of Contents 31
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10: Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73: equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78: standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
Page 81 and 82: Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84:
Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
Page 85 and 86:
Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
Page 87 and 88:
It is certainly possible that decli
Page 89 and 90:
Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100:
policy implementation is critical:
Page 101 and 102:
transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
Page 117:
The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
Page 243:
PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 246 and 247:
The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
Page 252 and 253:
Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312:
Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338:
coal resources lie in the provinces
Page 339 and 340:
Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342:
of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344:
An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377:
of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387:
improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
Page 404 and 405:
Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417:
Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419:
the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433:
Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439:
South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441:
Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443:
ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446:
CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452:
which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460:
Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556:
Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559:
tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579:
focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589:
Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591:
ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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