World Energy Outlook 2007

Key Results
Energy Demand
Primary energy demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario is reduced by about
17% in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario (Table 18.1). The pace of
energy demand growth in 2005-2030 is reduced to 2.8% per year, against
3.6% in the Reference Scenario. Changes in the capital stock occur slowly, so
the average efficiency of power plants, industrial processes and household
appliances approaches that of OECD countries today only by the end of the
Outlook period. Between 2005 and 2030, energy intensity improves rapidly, at
3.3% per year, in the Alternative Policy Scenario, compared with 2.6% in the
Reference Scenario. More efficient industrial processes and power plants, an
increase in the use of energy-efficient appliances and equipment, and a
reduction in the inefficient use of biomass for cooking and heating all
contribute to this improvement.
Table 18.1: India's Primary Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario
(Mtoe)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario
in 2030
2005 2015 2030 2005- Mtoe %
2030*
Coal 208 289 411 2.8% –209 –33.7
Oil 129 173 272 3.0% –56 –17.1
Gas 29 47 89 4.6% –4 –4.3
Nuclear 5 19 47 9.9% 14 41.9
Hydro 9 17 32 5.3% 9 42.3
Biomass 158 168 211 1.2% 17 8.5
Other renewables 1 6 21 15.8% 12 145.5
Total 537 719 1 082 2.8% –217 –16.7
* Average annual rate of growth.
Demand for coal falls the most in both absolute and percentage terms, with
coal savings reaching 209 Mtoe in 2030 (Figure 18.1). The majority of the
coal saved – over 70% – comes about as a result of the lower requirement for
power generation. Lower electricity-demand growth, higher powergeneration
efficiency and fuel-switching explain this trend. More efficient
production of iron and steel and cement, combined with higher efficiency in
less energy-intensive industries like textiles and ceramics, brings additional
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Chapter 18 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 533