World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 1.2: World Primary Oil Demand in the Reference Scenario
(million barrels/day)
1980 2000 2006 2010 2015 2030 2006-
2030*
OECD 41.8 46.0 47.3 49.0 50.8 52.9 0.5%
North America 20.9 23.4 24.9 26.2 27.7 30.0 0.8%
Europe 14.7 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.7 0.1%
Pacific 6.3 8.4 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.1 0.0%
Transition economies 9.4 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.6 0.9%
Russia n.a. 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 0.9%
Developing countries 11.3 23.1 28.8 33.7 38.7 53.3 2.6%
China 1.9 4.7 7.1 9.0 11.1 16.5 3.6%
India 0.7 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.7 6.5 3.9%
Other Asia 1.8 4.5 5.5 6.2 6.9 8.9 2.0%
Middle East 2.0 4.6 6.0 7.0 7.9 9.5 1.9%
Africa 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.8 2.2%
Latin America 3.5 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.6 7.1 1.6%
Int. marine bunkers and
stock changes 2.2 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.5 n.a.
World 64.8 77.0 84.7 91.1 98.5 116.3 1.3%
European Union n.a. 13.6 13.8 13.8 14.0 13.8 0.0%
* Average annual rate of growth.
The transport sector is the principal driver of oil demand in most regions
(Figure 1.6). Globally, transport’s share of total primary oil use rises from 47% in
2005 to 52% in 2030. Although biofuels take an increasing share of the market
for road-transport fuels, oil-based fuels continue to dominate, their share of
transport demand falling from 94% to 92% over the projection period.
Worldwide, consumption of oil for transport is projected to grow by 1.7% per
year over 2005-2030. Demand grows fastest in the developing regions, in line
with rising incomes and investment in infrastructure. Today, there are about
900 million vehicles on the world’s roads (excluding two-wheelers); by 2030,
their number is expected to pass 2.1 billion. Most of the extra vehicles are
destined to be used in Asia. The non-OECD vehicle fleet overtakes that of
OECD countries in aggregate by around 2025, and is 30% larger by 2030.
Major improvements in vehicle fuel economy in all regions slow the growth in
demand for gasoline and diesel, but do not reverse it. Industry and the residential
and service sectors account for most of the rest of the increase in global oil
demand, with most of the growth coming from non-OECD countries. Oil
demand for power generation remains small.
80 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA