World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 17
REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
India's proven reserves of oil are limited. About 80% of current production
is estimated to be from fields which have passed their peak. India overtakes
Japan to become the world's third-largest net oil importer, after the United
States and China in the first half of the 2020s. India's role as a major oil
refiner grows, assuming the necessary investments are forthcoming.
Distillation capacity reaches 8.1 mb/d in 2030 in the Reference Scenario.
Recent discoveries are expected to boost gas production. Nevertheless, it is
projected to peak between 2020 and 2030, falling to 50 bcm by the end of
the projection period. Further pricing reform will determine whether the
requisite supply infrastructure is built in a timely manner.
Coal production increases from 262 Mtce in 2005 to 637 Mtce in 2030,
but demand rises even faster, to 886 Mtce. Because of the low quality
of domestic coking coal, about 105 Mtce is imported in 2030. Steam
coal imports reach 139 Mtce, as power generation demand is largely
concentrated in coastal regions where domestic resources are scarce. Total
coal imports in India in 2030 are more than 10% above the coal imports
into the entire European Union.
Total electricity generation increases from 699 TWh in 2005 to 2 774TWh
in 2030, an average increase of 5.7% per year. Per-capita electricity generation
rises to more than 1 900 kWh, compared with 8 870 kWh in OECD
countries today. Coal-fired power generation remains the backbone of India's
electricity sector, because it is the cheapest way to produce electricity. Its share
is projected to increase from 69% to 71%.
Over the projection period, the average efficiency of coal-fired power
generation is projected to improve considerably, as new plants will be larger
and more efficient and as supercritical units are built. On average, efficiency
is expected to increase from 27% now to 38% in 2030 - slightly above the
current level of efficiency in the OECD.
India needs to invest about $1.25 trillion in energy infrastructure in the
period 2006-2030 to meet demand in the Reference Scenario. Threequarters
of this investment, almost $1 trillion, is in power infrastructure.
Attracting investment in a timely manner will be crucial for sustaining
economic growth. Power-sector reforms are on the right path but reform
implementation needs to be strengthened. For the sizeable investments that
India will need over the next two-and-a-half decades, improving the
investment conditions in the sector and moving towards a transparent,
predictable and consistent power-sector framework based on market
principles will remain of paramount importance.
Chapter 17 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 489