World Energy Outlook 2007

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18 19 20 Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 531 Highlights 531 Background and Assumptions 532 Key Results 533 Energy Demand 533 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security 535 Environmental Implications 536 Results by Sector 540 Power Generation 540 Industry 545 Transport 548 Residential and Services 551 Cost-Effectiveness of Policies 554 High Growth Scenario Projections 559 Highlights 559 Background and Assumptions 560 Energy Demand 561 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security 565 Coal 565 Oil and Gas 566 Electricity 568 Energy Import Bills 568 Implications for Investment 568 Environmental Implications 569 Implications for Access to Energy 570 Implications for Policy 571 Focus on Energy Poverty 573 Highlights 573 Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and Electricity Access 574 Measuring Energy Poverty 576 Expanding Access to Electricity in India 580 Health and Energy Poverty 581 Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and the Poor 584 Energy Demand in Slums 585 ANNEXES 588 Annex A Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 591 Annex B Abbreviations, Definitions and Conversion Factors 633 Annex C Acronyms 643 Annex D References 647 20 World Energy Outlook 2007
List of Figures Introduction 1. Share of China and India in Incremental Energy Demand, Imports and Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions, 2000-2006 54 2. Assumed Ratio of Natural Gas and Implied Relation of Coal Prices to Oil Prices in the Reference Scenario 65 Part A: Global Energy Prospects: Impact of Developments in China and India Chapter 1. Global Energy Trends 1.1 World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario 76 1.2 Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario 77 1.3 Primary Energy Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario 78 1.4 Regional Shares in Incremental Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 78 1.5 Primary Energy Intensity in the Reference Scenario 79 1.6 Share of Transport in Primary Oil Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario 81 1.7 Net Oil Trade in the Reference Scenario 83 1.8 Incremental Primary Natural Gas Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 86 1.9 Net Imports of Natural Gas by Major Region in the Reference Scenario 88 1.10 World Coal Production by Type in the Reference Scenario 91 1.11 FOB Cash Costs and Prices of World Steam Coal from Major Exporters, 2005 91 1.12 Fuel Mix in Power Generation in the Reference Scenario 94 1.13 Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure in the Reference Scenario by Fuel and Region, 2006-2030 96 1.14 Incremental World Primary Fossil-Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 2005-2030 99 1.15 Change in Primary Energy Intensity in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2005-2030 99 1.16 Oil Demand and Savings by Sector in the Alternative Policy Scenario 100 1.17 Increase in Net Oil Imports in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2006-2030 102 1.18 Coal Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 104 1.19 Incremental Non-Fossil Energy Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 105 Table of Contents 21
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10: Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73:
equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76:
CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78:
standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84:
Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100:
policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
Page 184 and 185:
western markets. Any disruption to
Page 186 and 187:
2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
Page 252 and 253:
Capital accumulation was boosted by
Page 254 and 255:
several times since the beginning o
Page 256 and 257:
Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
Page 260 and 261:
infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
Page 283 and 284:
Access to Modern Energy China has a
Page 285 and 286:
CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290:
Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
Page 293 and 294:
exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
Page 295 and 296:
energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
Page 299 and 300:
to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
Page 301 and 302:
Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
Page 303 and 304:
develop their own-brand vehicles in
Page 305 and 306:
standards are most stringent for he
Page 307 and 308:
nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312:
Appliance efficiency improvements w
Page 313 and 314:
FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316:
Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318:
generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320:
CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338:
coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342:
of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344:
An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352:
Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
Page 355 and 356:
8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
Page 368 and 369:
Reference Scenario. More than two-t
Page 370 and 371:
The most striking difference concer
Page 372 and 373:
The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
Page 374 and 375:
power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377:
of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383:
Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387:
improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391:
Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
Page 398 and 399:
Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
Page 404 and 405:
Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409:
Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413:
Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417:
Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419:
the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425:
PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431:
up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433:
Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439:
South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443:
ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446:
CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452:
which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460:
Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462:
of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470:
Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472:
Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476:
The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493:
Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495:
and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497:
expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503:
come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507:
98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521:
8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523:
India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536:
Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538:
energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544:
Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546:
Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
Page 547 and 548:
1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552:
to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554:
Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556:
Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558:
Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559:
tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565:
period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569:
Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573:
in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577:
Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579:
focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581:
The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583:
Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587:
Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589:
Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591:
ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 618 and 619:
Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629:
Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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