World Energy Outlook 2007

egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10). Per-capita emissions are markedly lower in
all regions in the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario. In
the High Growth Scenario, both China’s and India’s per-capita emissions are
about one-fifth higher than in the Reference Scenario. The change is less
marked in the rest of the world.
Table 5.3: Per-Capita Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions by Region and Scenario
(tonnes)
Reference Alternative Policy High Growth
Scenario Scenario Scenario
2005 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
OECD 11.0 11.4 11.6 10.7 9.7 11.3 11.3
North America 15.5 15.8 15.6 15.2 13.5 15.6 15.2
United States 19.5 19.6 19.0 18.9 16.5 19.4 18.5
Europe 7.5 7.6 7.9 6.8 6.1 7.7 7.8
Pacific 10.3 11.4 11.8 10.9 9.8 10.8 10.7
Transition economies 7.5 8.9 10.1 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.9
Russia 10.7 13.3 16.0 12.6 14.1 13.3 16.0
Developing countries 2.2 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.7 3.1 4.0
China 3.9 6.2 7.9 5.8 6.1 6.8 9.7
India 1.0 1.4 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.7
Other Asia 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9
Middle East 6.7 8.0 8.7 7.3 7.2 8.1 9.6
Africa 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Latin America 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8
World 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.4 4.1 4.8 5.5
European Union 8.0 8.0 8.4 7.2 6.5 8.2 8.3
In contrast to per-capita emissions, carbon intensity, measured as emissions
per unit of GDP, falls sharply in both China and India in all scenarios over
the Outlook period (Figure 5.11). This is because the contribution to GDP
of energy-intensive manufacturing industry, which relies heavily on coal, falls
over the projection period, with faster growth in services. The reduction in
the share of coal in the country’s primary energy mix also drives down carbon
intensity. Carbon intensity falls less rapidly in other developing countries and
in the OECD.
202 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA