World Energy Outlook 2007

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11.6 Changes in China’s Electricity Generation in the Alternative Policy Scenario and Savings Relative to the Reference Scenario, 2030 373 11.7 Industrial Energy Savings in China by Fuel and Industrial Sub-Sector in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario Relative to the Reference Scenario 377 11.8 Savings in China’s Transport Oil Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario Relative to the Reference Scenario 381 11.9 China’s Air Conditioner and Refrigerator Electricity Savings in the Alternative Policy Scenario 384 11.10 Payback Period of Selected Measures in China in the Alternative Policy Scenario 385 11.11 Cumulative Import Bill in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2007-2030 388 11.12 Change in Energy Investment in the Alternative Policy Scenario Compared with the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030 388 Chapter 12. High Growth Scenario Projections 12.1 Incremental Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in China in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, 2005-2030 392 12.2 Incremental Final Energy Demand by Sector in China in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, 2005-2030 393 12.3 Vehicle Stock in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, Compared with Selected Countries 394 12.4 China’s Net Coal Imports in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios 395 12.5 China’s Oil Demand, Production and Net Imports in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios 397 12.6 China’s Cumulative Oil and Gas Import Bill in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, 2006-2030 398 12.7 Cumulative Energy Supply Investment in China in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, 2006-2030 399 12.8 China’s CO 2 Emissions in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios 401 Chapter 13. Focus on the Coastal Region 13.1 Provinces and Regions of China 405 13.2 Share of the Coastal Region in China’s Economy and Energy Demand, 2005 408 13.3 Provincial Energy Intensity Targets, 2005-2010 410 13.4 Energy Intensity Reduction Target and Outcome by Province in China’s Coastal Region, 2005-2006 411 26 World Energy Outlook 2007
13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Region to China’s Incremental Final Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 412 13.6 Power Generating Capacity in the Coastal Region 413 13.7 Car Ownership and GDP per Capita in Selected Provinces in China, 1994-2005 415 13.8 Share of the Population in China’s Coastal Provinces with Access to Natural Gas and Planned LNG 416 13.9 Power Generation Costs by Fuel and Distance, 2005 417 13.10 CO 2 Emissions per Capita, 2005-2030 419 Part C: India’s Energy Prospects Chapter 14. Political, Economic and Demographic Context 14.1 GDP per Capita by State 429 14.2 Economic Structure and Employment 430 14.3 Labour Productivity in Selected Countries Relative to the United States 431 14.4 Sources of Output Growth in India 432 14.5 Share of Fuel in Value of India’s Imports and Exports 435 14.6 Share of Gross Capital Formation in GDP in China, India and Japan 439 14.7 Percentage of Population Urbanised in India Compared to 2005 Urbanisation Level in Selected Countries 441 Chapter 15. Overview of the Energy Sector 15.1 India’s Fossil Fuel Production and Imports, 2005 446 15.2 Energy Policy Administration in India’s Energy Sector 451 Chapter 16. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 16.1 Primary Energy Demand in Selected Countries in the Reference Scenario 466 16.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy Demand in India in the Reference Scenario 467 16.3 Industrial Energy Demand by Fuel in India in the Reference Scenario 468 16.4 India’s Transport Energy Demand by Mode in the Reference Scenario 473 16.5 India’s Vehicle Stock in the Reference Scenario 474 16.6 Residential Fuel Mix in India in the Reference Scenario 477 16.7 Fuelwood and LPG Use for Cooking in India by Income Class, 2005 480 Table of Contents 27
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10: Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73: equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78: standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80:
Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377:
of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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