World Energy Outlook 2007

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Of the main final sectors, the transport sector sees the biggest increase in demand in percentage terms in the High Growth Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario. By 2030, transport energy use is 38% higher. The largest contribution to incremental oil demand comes from this sector, mainly as a result of rapidly rising vehicle ownership. Vehicle ownership, which is closely linked to per-capita income, jumps from 27 vehicles per 1 000 people in 2005 to 285 in 2030, which is four-fifths of Korea’s level in 2005. The vehicle stock grows to 410 million in 2030, compared with 270 million in the Reference Scenario (Figure 12.3). The number of passenger cars on the road in China reaches almost 300 million in 2030, more than ten times the current level and almost 50% more than in the Reference Scenario. Oil demand for road transport reaches 9.9 mb/d in 2030 – up from 7.1 mb/d in the Reference Scenario. Demand for biofuels also expands significantly. Figure 12.3: Vehicle Stock in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, Compared with Selected Countries 450 900 million 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 750 600 450 300 150 vehicles per 1 000 people 0 China 2005 China 2030 Reference Scenario China 2030 High Growth Scenario Brazil 2005 Korea 2005 Japan 2005 United States 2005 0 Vehicles per 1 000 people (right axis) Sources: International Road Federation (2006); NBS; IEA analysis. In the residential sector, building stock and electrical appliance ownership do not grow as fast as economic growth, as they already approach saturation levels in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. However, the switch from coal and biomass use associated with higher incomes boosts demand for oil and gas for space and water heating. Demand in the residential, services and agriculture sectors combined is 9% higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. 394 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security Higher coal demand in China and India in the High Growth Scenario pushes up global coal demand and, therefore, prices (see Chapter 3). As a result, coal supply in China grows more quickly than in the Reference Scenario. Total coal production is projected to increase to 2 798 million tonnes of coal equivalent in 2015 and 3 959 Mtce in 2030, 19%, or 625 Mtce, more than in the Reference Scenario. This is a volume equivalent to the combined production of Australia, India and Colombia in 2005. Steam coal accounts for 95% of incremental coal supply in 2030. Almost all of the increase in coal production comes from the inland region, which produces 90% of total production in 2030, in particular the Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Shaanxi provinces. Though coal production grows much faster in the High Growth Scenario, it nonetheless fails to keep pace with growing demand. As a result, China’s net coal imports rise to reach 199 Mtce in 2030, 106 Mtce (115%) more than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 12.4). The extent of the country’s dependence on coal imports is 5% in 2030 – up from 3% in the Reference Scenario. Additional imports of steam coal come mainly from Australia and Indonesia, while Australia and the United States contribute significantly to meeting incremental Chinese coking coal import demand in 2030. Figure 12.4: China’s Net Coal Imports in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios 12 250 200 150 Mtce 100 50 0 –50 –100 2005 2015 2030 Reference Scenario High Growth Scenario Chapter 12 – High Growth Scenario Projections 395
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
Page 345 and 346: Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
Page 347 and 348: Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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Page 351 and 352: Capacity Requirements In the past t
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Page 355 and 356: 8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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Page 364 and 365: Background and Assumptions China’
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Page 368 and 369: Reference Scenario. More than two-t
Page 370 and 371: The most striking difference concer
Page 372 and 373: The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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Page 382 and 383: Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385: Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387: improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389: Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391: Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393: On the other hand, higher economic
Page 394 and 395: two-thirds of incremental oil deman
Page 398 and 399: Higher international prices also bo
Page 400 and 401: 128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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Page 404 and 405: Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407: The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409: Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411: Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413: Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415: incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417: Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419: the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421: The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423: APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
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Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
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Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
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