World Energy Outlook 2007

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Chapter 9. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 9.1 Recent Energy Trends in China 287 9.2 Prospects for Alternative Transport Fuels in China 299 9.3 China’s Car Market 300 9.4 Natural Gas Use in Towns and Cities 306 9.5 Household Use of Biomass and Coal 312 9.6 China and the Clean Development Mechanism 314 Chapter 10. Reference Scenario Supply Projections 10.1 Restructuring of China’s Oil Sector 322 10.2 China’s Emergency Oil Stocks 327 10.3 Coal Mining Safety in China 338 10.4 CO 2 Capture and Storage in China 347 Chapter 11. Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 11.1 Impact of Climate Change on China 371 11.2 Cost-Effectiveness of Improving Industrial Motor System Efficiency in China 386 Chapter 12. High Growth Scenario Projections 12.1 Prospects for Enhanced Oil Recovery in China 396 Chapter 13. Focus on the Coastal Region 13.1 Provincial Energy Statistics and Modelling of the Coastal Region 405 Part C: India’s Energy Prospects Chapter 14. Political, Economic and Demographic Context 14.1 India’s Five-Year Plans 428 14.2 Special Economic Zones in India 438 Chapter 15. Overview of the Energy Sector 15.1 India’s Energy Statistics 447 15.2 India’s New Exploration Licensing Policy 453 15.3 Public-Private Partnerships 461 Chapter 16. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 16.1 Feedstock for India’s Fertilizer Industry 470 16.2 Recent Slow Growth in Transport Fuel Demand 472 16.3 Upside Potential of Transport Oil Demand in India 475 16.4 Rural and Urban Household Energy Demand Projections 477 36 World Energy Outlook 2007
16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of India 478 16.6 Energy and Water Use in the Agricultural Sector 484 Chapter 17. Reference Scenario Supply Projections 17.1 India’s Emergency Oil Stocks 496 17.2 Coal Mining Productivity 507 17.3 Coal-Fired Power Plant Technology in India 512 17.4 CO 2 Capture and Storage 514 17.5 India’s Nuclear Power Generation Programme 515 Chapter 18. Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 18.1 The Impacts of Climate Change in India 539 18.2 Performance of India’s Coal-Fired Power Plants 542 18.3 Energy Savings in Cement Production 547 18.4 Delhi Transport Solutions 551 Chapter 19. High Growth Scenario Projections 19.1 The Vehicle Stock in the High Growth Scenario 564 Chapter 20. Focus on Energy Poverty 20.1 Energy Efficiency of Cooking Fuels and Technologies in India 575 20.2 Energy Poverty and Gender 583 20.3 Deepam LPG Scheme in Andhra Pradesh 585 List of Spotlights Part A: Global Energy Prospects: Impact of Developments in India and China Chapter 1. Global Energy Trends What is Stopping Governments from Implementing New Policies? 98 Chapter 2. Energy Trends in India and China Are China and India Following the Same Energy Development Path? 124 Chapter 3. International Trade and the World Economy Which Countries Gain Most from Economic Growth in China and India? 147 Chapter 4. The World’s Energy Security Do China’s and India’s Equity Oil Acquisitions Improve Energy Security? 179 Chapter 5. Global Environmental Repercussions Can China and India Ever Mirror Western Lifestyles? 215 Table of Contents 37
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10: Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22: 16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73: equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78: standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
Page 81 and 82: Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84: Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
Page 85 and 86: Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
Page 87 and 88: It is certainly possible that decli
Page 89 and 90:
Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
Page 91 and 92:
developments in clean coal technolo
Page 93 and 94:
in the form of coking coal, grow st
Page 95 and 96:
(Table 1.8). India and China experi
Page 97 and 98:
Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100:
policy implementation is critical:
Page 101 and 102:
transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
Page 115 and 116:
in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
Page 117:
The High Growth Scenario projection
Page 120 and 121:
Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
Page 126 and 127:
SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290:
Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
Page 293 and 294:
exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316:
Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318:
generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320:
CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
Page 329 and 330:
Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338:
coal resources lie in the provinces
Page 339 and 340:
Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352:
Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
Page 368 and 369:
Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417:
Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433:
Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439:
South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441:
Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460:
Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476:
The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495:
and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538:
energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546:
Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552:
to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559:
tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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