World Energy Outlook 2007

Implications for Energy Markets and Supply
Security
Higher coal demand in China and India in the High Growth Scenario pushes
up global coal demand and, therefore, prices (see Chapter 3). As a result, coal
supply in China grows more quickly than in the Reference Scenario. Total coal
production is projected to increase to 2 798 million tonnes of coal equivalent
in 2015 and 3 959 Mtce in 2030, 19%, or 625 Mtce, more than in the
Reference Scenario. This is a volume equivalent to the combined production
of Australia, India and Colombia in 2005. Steam coal accounts for 95% of
incremental coal supply in 2030. Almost all of the increase in coal production
comes from the inland region, which produces 90% of total production in
2030, in particular the Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Shaanxi provinces.
Though coal production grows much faster in the High Growth Scenario, it
nonetheless fails to keep pace with growing demand. As a result, China’s net
coal imports rise to reach 199 Mtce in 2030, 106 Mtce (115%) more than in
the Reference Scenario (Figure 12.4). The extent of the country’s dependence
on coal imports is 5% in 2030 – up from 3% in the Reference Scenario.
Additional imports of steam coal come mainly from Australia and Indonesia,
while Australia and the United States contribute significantly to meeting
incremental Chinese coking coal import demand in 2030.
Figure 12.4: China’s Net Coal Imports in the Reference
and High Growth Scenarios
12
250
200
150
Mtce
100
50
0
–50
–100
2005 2015 2030
Reference Scenario
High Growth Scenario
Chapter 12 – High Growth Scenario Projections 395