World Energy Outlook 2007

all scenarios, accounting for 60% of the latter’s output in 2030 in the High
Growth Scenario (Figure 4.7). As for oil, most LNG shipped from the Middle
East to both India and China will have to pass through the Straits of Hormuz. In
the case of China, Middle East and Australian LNG will have to transit the
Indonesian archipelago.
Table 4.4: Natural Gas Imports into China and India by Source (bcm)
Reference Alternative Policy High Growth
Scenario Scenario Scenario
2005 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
China 0 28 128 48 158 47 216
Transition
economies 0 10 38 10 38 10 38
Middle East 0 0 8 0 0 12 40
Australia 0 11 50 15 53 14 55
Other
developing Asia 0 7 31 23 66 10 54
Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
India 6 13 61 12 56 29 112
Middle East 6 12 60 10 55 28 111
Africa 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Australia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4
Figure 4.7: Share of China and India in Natural Gas Exports by Source
Africa
Transition economies
Other developing Asia
Australia
Middle East
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
2005 2030 Reference Scenario
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030 High Growth Scenario
Chapter 4 - The World’s Energy Security 173