World Energy Outlook 2007

Figure 1.18: Coal Demand in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
China
India
Rest of the world
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
million tonnes of coal equivalent
2005 2030 Reference Scenario
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
decline in domestic demand as high domestic production costs cause export
demand to fall more steeply. Globally, coal trade grows markedly more slowly,
such that by 2030, exports are about 48% lower than in the Reference Scenario.
Non-Fossil Energy Sources
Demand for energy from all non-fossil fuel primary sources combined is
17% higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 1.19). Nuclear
power accounts for 42% of the additional demand for non-fossil fuel energy,
hydropower for 9%, biomass for 23% and other renewables for 26%.
Nuclear energy grows over the projection period more than twice as fast as
in the Reference Scenario, and is 27% higher in 2030. The largest increases
in net capacity are in OECD Europe (36 GW), where the implementation
of policies to phase out nuclear energy is assumed to be delayed, in China
(24 GW) and the United States (16 GW).
Global consumption of biomass is 7.6% higher in the Alternative Policy
Scenario in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. This results from several
factors. Switching away from traditional biomass for cooking and heating in
developing countries and, to a lesser extent, improvements in efficiency in
industrial processes, drive demand down. But these changes are outweighed by
the increased use of biomass in combined heat and power production, in
104 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA