World Energy Outlook 2007

continues to rise, from 41% in 2005 to around 45% in 2030 in the
Reference Scenario and 46% in the High Growth Scenario, driven by the
sector’s increasing share in primary energy use and the growing dependence
on fossil energy (Figure 5.5). But, in the Alternative Policy Scenario, the
sector’s share of emissions falls markedly, reversing past trends, as the share
of nuclear power and renewables in the generation fuel mix increases
significantly.
5
Figure 5.5: Share of Power Generation in World Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions and in Primary Energy Demand, 1980-2030
share of power generation in total
CO 2
emissions
48%
46%
44%
42%
40%
38%
36%
34%
32%
1980 2005 2030
30%
25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43%
share of power generation in total primary energy demand
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy
Scenario
High Growth
Scenario
In all three scenarios, most of the increase in emissions from power stations
comes from developing countries, mainly because their electricity
production increases faster than that of the OECD and the transition
economies. In addition, their reliance on coal will remain much higher. For
the world as a whole, average global emissions per kWh of electricity
produced fall slightly in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios as a
result of continuing improvements in the thermal efficiency of power plants.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, emissions intensity falls much more
sharply, again thanks to faster efficiency gains and faster growth in nuclear
power and renewables (Figure 5.6).
Chapter 5 - Global Environmental Repercussions 195