World Energy Outlook 2007

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incremental final energy demand. For all fuels, except coal, biomass and other renewables, the coastal region contributes the greater part of the increase in energy demand. In the period 2015-2030, the coastal region’s coal demand actually declines; however, this effect is offset by coal demand growth in the inland region. Mtoe Figure 13.5: Contribution of the Coastal Region to China’s Incremental Final Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 –40 –80 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2015 2015-2030 Coal Oil Gas Electricity Heat Biomass Coastal Inland 2005-2015 2015-2030 Other renewables Note: Coastal consumption data for other renewables are not available. Power Generation Electricity generation is projected to reach 4 769 TWh in 2030 (Table 13.4). It grows by 8.1% per year between 2005 and 2015, and then slows to 3.9% per year from 2015 to 2030. The share of coal in the generation fuel mix remains high, at 84% in 2030 – more or less the same share as now. Coal-fired generation continues to grow strongly through 2015 and slows thereafter. Hydropower remains the most important renewable source, but its share of generation declines. Other renewables – notably bioenergy, onshore wind and, to a lesser extent, solar photovoltaics – grow much more rapidly. More than 80% of generation from solar photovoltaics is located in the coastal region throughout the Outlook period. 412 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Table 13.4: Electricity Generation Fuel Mix in China’s Coastal Region (TWh) 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015* 2030* Coal 575 1 054 2 332 4 016 8.3% 5.5% Oil 44 52 52 43 0.0% –0.7% Gas 1 4 67 249 31.6% 17.6% Nuclear 17 53 123 256 8.8% 6.5% Hydro 51 65 75 90 1.4% 1.3% Biomass and waste 1 3 6 33 5.6% 9.7% Other renewables – 1 29 82 35.8% 17.8% Total 688 1 233 2 684 4 769 8.1% 5.6% * Average annual rate of growth. To meet demand growth over the Outlook period, the coastal region needs to increase electricity generating capacity from 172 GW in 2005 to 773 GW by 2030 (Figure 13.6). Steam coal is projected to account for 76% of incremental capacity. Onshore wind emerges as a new source of generation towards the end of the projection period, and represents 3% of generating capacity in 2030. The majority of onshore wind is located on the coast, but the inland region catches up by 2030. Figure 13.6: Power Generating Capacity in the Coastal Region (GW) 13 800 700 600 500 GW 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2015 2030 Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Other renewables Chapter 13 – Focus on the Coastal Region 413
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365: Background and Assumptions China’
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Page 368 and 369: Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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Page 372 and 373: The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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Page 382 and 383: Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385: Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387: improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389: Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391: Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393: On the other hand, higher economic
Page 394 and 395: two-thirds of incremental oil deman
Page 396 and 397: Of the main final sectors, the tran
Page 398 and 399: Higher international prices also bo
Page 400 and 401: 128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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Page 404 and 405: Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407: The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409: Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411: Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413: Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 416 and 417: Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419: the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421: The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423: APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
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Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443: ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454: ■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462: of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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