World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 5
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL REPERCUSSIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
Rising global fossil fuel use will continue to drive up energy-related CO 2
emissions over the projection period. In the Reference Scenario, emissions
jump by 57% between 2005 and 2030, from 26.6 to 41.9 Gt. The United
States, China, Russia and India contribute two-thirds of this increase.
China is by far the biggest contributor to incremental emissions, overtaking
the United States as the world’s biggest emitter in 2007. India becomes the
third-largest emitter around 2015. But these figures need to be looked at
in a historical context. From 1900 to 2005, the United States and the EU
countries combined accounted for just over half of cumulative global
emissions. China accounted for only 8% and India 2%. In the Reference
Scenario, China’s share of emissions from 1900 to 2030 rises to 16%,
approaching that of the United States (25%) and the European Union
(18%). India’s cumulative emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%).
Rising CO 2
and other greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere
resulting mainly from fossil-energy combustion and other human
activities are contributing to rising global temperatures and to changes in
climate. There is growing support worldwide for urgent action to stabilise
greenhouse-gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system, as agreed by
G8 leaders at their recent summit in Heiligendamm.
In the most ambitious of the IPCC’s scenarios, in which CO 2
-equivalent
concentrations are stabilised at around 450 ppm, global CO 2
emissions
would need to peak by 2015 at the latest and to fall by between 50% and
85% below 2000 levels by 2050. Energy-related CO 2
emissions do not
peak before 2020 in any of the scenarios in this Outlook, though emissions
stabilise in the mid-2020s in the Alternative Policy Scenario and are 19%
lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario.
In our “450 Stabilisation Case”, energy-related CO 2
emissions would
need to peak in 2012 at around 30 Gt and then decline to 23 Gt in 2030
– 19 Gt less than in the Reference Scenario and 11 Gt less than in the
Alternative Policy Scenario. Emissions savings come from improved
efficiency in fossil-fuel use in industry, buildings and transport, switching
to nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of CO 2
capture and storage in power generation and industry. Exceptionally strong
and immediate policy action would be essential for this to happen and the
associated costs would be very high.
Chapter 5 - Global Environmental Repercussions 191