World Energy Outlook 2007

Gas-fired power generation accounts for 11% of total generation in 2030 in
both scenarios, but in the Alternative Policy Scenario is lower in absolute terms
by 16%. This is because there is substitution of biomass for gas, notably in onsite
production of electricity in industry.
Nuclear power capacity in the Alternative Policy Scenario reaches 24 GW in
2030, compared with 17 GW in the Reference Scenario. The share of
nuclear power in total electricity generation rises from 2% in 2005 to 8% in
2030, compared with 5% in the Reference Scenario. The level of installed
nuclear capacity in 2030 is well below the 40 GW targeted by the
government, reflecting doubts about the speed at which India can increase
its nuclear power capacity. How the recently announced USA-India nuclear
co-operation agreement will unfold is a major uncertainty. India plans to
build light water and fast breeder reactors.
Because of limited domestic uranium, but plentiful domestic thorium
resources, India is developing fast breeder reactor (FBR) technology, but it
is very uncertain whether India will be able to deploy fast breeders on a large
scale before 2030. A number of countries in the OECD have experimented
with the development of this technology, originally in the belief that
uranium would be scarce and expensive. In practice, uranium supplies have
been plentiful and FBRs are now considered as possibly being ripe for
commercial deployment around 2050. While early prototypes suffered from
a number of problems, they also demonstrated that large-scale FBRs are a
practical proposition. The small number actually brought into operation
achieved better availability, in some years, than some more established
thermal reactor designs. Outside the OECD, Russia has the greatest
experience with FBRs, including the BN600 reactor in Beloyarsk, which has
operated relatively successfully for many years.
The FBR fuel cycle involves plutonium, which is usually extracted from
spent nuclear fuel through reprocessing. Breeder reactors are expected to
produce more plutonium than they actually consume (reprocessed from
spent fuel and recycled into fresh fuel). The reprocessing of spent fuel and
separation out of plutonium, however, raise proliferation concerns which
have to be addressed through strict adherence to the Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT), its additional protocol and any further safeguard agreements which
may be entered into under this treaty. Another possible approach to
proliferation risks includes putting sensitive parts of the fuel cycle under
international control, under a new, multilateral framework for the nuclear
fuel cycle.
India's technical hydropower potential is among the highest in the world
(WEC, 2007). Estimated at 660 TWh annually, it is the second-largest
potential in Asia, after China, and the sixth-largest in the world. In the early
544 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS