World Energy Outlook 2007

Industry
Industry is today the main final consumer of energy in the coastal region,
accounting for 55% of total final consumption in 2005. This share
is projected to decline, reaching 46% in 2030. Some 44% of China’s
1 000 largest enterprises – and 58% of steel producers (CEIC, 2007) – are
currently located in the coastal region. The bulk of new heavy industrial
capacity (such as iron and steel, chemicals, and non-metallic minerals) is
expected to be located in the inland provinces, resulting in a sharp slow-down
in the growth of industrial energy consumption in the coastal region. The share
of the industrial sector in coastal GDP is assumed to decline from 51% in 2005
to 49% by 2030. Also, as is the case nationally, there is a shift in the balance of
output from heavy industry towards lighter manufacturing. These two effects
slow annual coal demand growth to 3.3% per year to 2015 and it declines by
1.2% per year from 2015 to 2030. However, the shift in investment towards
lighter industry causes electricity demand to continue to grow rapidly,
averaging 6.9% per year from 2005 to 2015, before dropping to 2.8% per year
from 2015 to 2030.
Transport
Close to 72% of incremental oil demand for transport in China will come from
the coastal provinces. This growth will be driven by road transport. Vehicle
ownership has been relatively higher in the coastal region than in the inland
region. In 2005, vehicle ownership in the coastal area was 35 vehicles per
1 000 people, double the inland average of 17. Cars accounted for 71% of onroad
vehicles, a higher share than inland. Car ownership varies greatly among
coastal provinces, reflecting relative wealth, transport infrastructure and
transportation policy (Figure 13.7). Passenger-car ownership in the coastal
region is projected to climb from 30 cars per 1 000 inhabitants in 2006 to
260 in 2030. Inland ownership rates will reach around 70 in 2030, a level
achieved in 2015 in coastal China. By 2030, three-quarters of all the cars on
Chinese roads and 64% of new car sales are expected to be in the coastal region.
Policies aimed at further improving and encouraging public transport in the
coastal provinces will be needed to limit the growth in oil demand and imports.
Driven by rising vehicle ownership, transport energy demand in the coastal
region quadruples over the Outlook period, growing on average by 5.9% per
year. The region accounts for 69% of national oil demand by the transport
sector in 2030, up from 62% in 2005. By contrast, electricity use for rail
transport, which is currently concentrated on the coast, will grow faster inland.
Oil demand for aviation, currently split evenly between the coastal and inland
regions, grows faster on the coast through to 2030.
414 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS