World Energy Outlook 2007

Oil Refining
China’s refining capacity is growing fast. Distillation capacity climbed to
6.6 mb/d in 2006 and to about 7.5 mb/d in early 2007. An average of
460 kb/d of additional capacity is expected to be brought on stream annually
over the next five years from identified projects, much of it at greenfield
refineries (see Figure 10.3). On that basis, total installed capacity will reach
9.9 mb/d in 2012. Some 55% of the new capacity will be built by Sinopec and
27% by PetroChina. The number of refineries should grow from about 100 at
present (the exact number of refineries in China is not known with certainty)
to approximately 120.
10
Figure 10.3: Planned Refining Capacities in China
8
10
mb/d
6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sources: IEA analysis.
Atmospheric distillation
Catalytic hydrocracking
Thermal processes
Catalytic cracking
Beyond 2012, up to 2030, refining capacity is assumed to increase in line with
oil demand in the Reference Scenario. On this basis, distillation capacity
reaches 11.1 mb/d in 2015 and 16.6 mb/d in 2030 (Figure 10.4). The
challenge facing Chinese refiners in the years to come is two-fold. First, they
need to keep pace with the strongly growing domestic market, which is
projected to reach 9.8 mb/d in 2012. Current investment plans suggest they
Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 323