World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 11
ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
The results of the Alternative Policy Scenario demonstrate that China can
move onto a more sustainable economic and environmental path through
stricter enforcement of existing policies and introduction of the new ones
now being discussed. There is a net economic benefit for Chinese energy
consumers and for China as a country – even before the energy-security
and environmental implications are taken into account.
In 2030, the energy savings are comparable to Africa’s current consumption.
Energy demand nonetheless increases by around 90% between 2005 and
2030. In addition to energy-efficiency improvements along the entire
energy chain, realisation of the government’s objectives for structural change
in the economy is pivotal. It accounts for more than 40% of energy savings.
Demand for coal and oil is reduced substantially. In contrast, demand for
other fuels – natural gas, nuclear and renewables – increases.
Coal demand is reduced by 23% in 2030. Close to 40% of the savings comes
from reduced electricity use – to which industry contributes two-thirds –
which reduces the need to burn coal to generate power. Improved powergeneration
efficiency accounts for another 30%. More efficient industrial
applications and increasing reliance on lighter industries accounts for most of
the remainder. Increased reliance on coal-to-liquids only marginally offsets
the savings. In this scenario, China remains self-sufficient in coal.
More efficient use of energy has positive environmental benefits. In 2030,
SO 2
emissions are 20% lower, compared with the Reference Scenario. NO x
emissions are stabilised after 2010. An associated benefit is the dramatic
reduction in CO 2
emissions, by an impressive 2.6 gigatonnes. In fact, in the
Alternative Policy Scenario, CO 2
emissions stabilise soon after 2020.
Oil demand grows on average by 2.8% per year, reaching 13.4 mb/d in
2030 – 3.2 mb/d less than in the Reference Scenario. Two-thirds of the oil
savings originates from the transport sector, notably from the increased fuel
efficiency of new vehicles and faster introduction of alternative fuels and
vehicles. In 2030, oil imports are 9.7 mb/d, or 3.4 mb/d, lower than in the
Reference Scenario. The Chinese oil import bill over the Outlook period is
$760 billion lower.
The majority of the measures have a very short payback period. In
addition, one dollar invested in more efficient electrical applications saves
$3.50 on the supply side. China’s efforts to improve the efficiency of
vehicles and electrical appliances will impact not only on domestic energy
efficiency but also, because China is a net exporter of these products, on
global energy efficiency.
Chapter 11 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 361