World Energy Outlook 2007

Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD Pacific
Energy demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total primary energy demand 996 1 044 100 100 1.2 0.7 –2.0 –5.0
Coal 235 185 24 18 0.8 –0.6 –5.3 –24.7
Oil 386 360 39 34 –0.1 –0.3 –3.4 –7.5
Gas 165 172 17 16 2.8 1.3 –1.8 –13.3
Nuclear 154 222 15 21 2.7 2.6 1.4 16.0
Hydro 13 14 1 1 2.0 1.1 1.3 3.7
Biomass and waste 29 57 3 5 7.3 5.6 17.6 48.1
Other renewables 14 34 1 3 8.7 7.3 19.7 51.0
Power generation 456 494 100 100 1.8 1.0 –2.2 –5.7
Coal 159 113 35 23 0.8 –1.0 –6.6 –32.7
Oil 22 10 5 2 –3.6 –4.5 –12.0 –27.4
Gas 88 87 19 18 3.1 1.2 –1.7 –19.7
Nuclear 154 222 34 45 2.7 2.6 1.4 16.0
Hydro 13 14 3 3 2.0 1.1 1.3 3.7
Biomass and waste 11 25 2 5 6.9 6.1 27.2 80.6
Other renewables 10 24 2 5 7.6 6.7 12.2 53.8
Other energy sector 78 78 100 100 0.8 0.3 –2.1 –5.9
Total final consumption 650 677 100 100 1.0 0.6 –2.2 –5.2
Coal 37 35 6 5 –0.2 –0.4 –2.7 –7.9
Oil 347 333 53 49 0.2 –0.1 –2.9 –6.9
of which transport 166 159 25 23 0.5 0.0 –3.9 –8.6
Gas 73 80 11 12 2.4 1.3 –1.8 –5.9
Electricity 165 179 25 26 1.9 1.1 –2.9 –7.6
Heat 6 7 1 1 1.7 1.2 –2.8 –5.3
Biomass and waste 19 32 3 5 7.6 5.3 12.6 30.2
of which biofuels 1 3 0 0 62.0 24.5 n.a. 196.4
Other renewables 4 11 1 2 13.0 9.4 45.4 45.9
Electricity (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
Total generation 2 127 2 300 100 100 1.8 1.0 –2.7 –7.3
Coal 743 538 35 23 1.1 –0.8 –7.3 –35.0
Oil 121 52 6 2 –3.6 –4.7 –12.2 –28.6
Gas 445 465 21 20 3.0 1.4 –1.7 –16.9
Nuclear 589 851 28 37 2.6 2.5 1.4 16.0
Hydro 148 160 7 7 2.0 1.1 1.3 3.7
Biomass and waste 40 73 2 3 5.8 4.8 21.9 56.5
Wind 23 102 1 4 21.4 14.6 23.0 95.5
Geothermal 10 16 0 1 4.8 3.8 7.2 17.9
Solar 7 41 0 2 49.1 25.7 17.2 103.8
Tide and wave 0 2 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 140.6
CO 2
emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
Total CO 2
emissions 2 213 1 929 100 100 0.7 –0.3 –4.2 –17.0
Coal 890 677 40 35 0.8 –0.8 –5.8 –27.4
Oil 947 868 43 45 0.0 –0.3 –3.7 –8.1
Gas 377 384 17 20 2.5 1.1 –1.8 –13.9
Power generation 968 727 100 100 0.9 –0.8 –6.0 –29.4
Coal 691 491 71 68 1.0 –1.0 –6.6 –32.8
Oil 71 32 7 4 –3.7 –4.6 –12.0 –27.4
Gas 207 204 21 28 3.0 1.1 –1.7 –19.7
Total final consumption 1 171 1 138 100 100 0.6 0.1 –2.8 –7.3
Coal 178 167 15 15 –0.1 –0.3 –2.7 –7.9
Oil 826 788 71 69 0.4 –0.0 –3.1 –7.5
Gas 167 183 14 16 2.4 1.3 –1.8 –5.8
A
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 611