World Energy Outlook 2007

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Reference Scenario: European Union Energy demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) 1990 2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 Total primary energy demand 1 653 1 814 1 910 2 006 100 100 100 0.5 0.4 Coal 451 317 291 275 17 15 14 –0.8 –0.6 Oil 626 671 678 670 37 35 33 0.1 –0.0 Gas 295 444 509 610 24 27 30 1.4 1.3 Nuclear 207 260 239 159 14 13 8 –0.8 –2.0 Hydro 25 26 34 37 1 2 2 2.8 1.4 Biomass and waste 46 83 127 182 5 7 9 4.3 3.2 Other renewables 3 13 33 72 1 2 4 10.0 7.2 Power generation 651 733 778 808 100 100 100 0.6 0.4 Coal 293 240 232 231 33 30 29 –0.3 –0.2 Oil 61 34 26 13 5 3 2 –2.8 –3.9 Gas 54 132 172 239 18 22 30 2.7 2.4 Nuclear 207 260 239 159 35 31 20 –0.8 –2.0 Hydro 25 26 34 37 4 4 5 2.8 1.4 Biomass and waste 8 29 44 65 4 6 8 4.1 3.2 Other renewables 3 12 30 65 2 4 8 10.1 7.1 Other energy sector 129 141 134 132 100 100 100 –0.5 –0.3 Total final consumption 1 157 1 302 1 395 1 528 100 100 100 0.7 0.6 Coal 120 44 33 24 3 2 2 –2.8 –2.3 Oil 532 601 618 624 46 44 41 0.3 0.2 of which transport 281 361 368 383 28 26 25 0.2 0.2 Gas 228 295 320 356 23 23 23 0.8 0.8 Electricity 185 237 273 326 18 20 21 1.4 1.3 Heat 54 71 66 74 5 5 5 –0.7 0.2 Biomass and waste 38 54 82 117 4 6 8 4.4 3.2 of which biofuels 0 3 18 32 0 1 2 19.1 9.7 Other renewables 1 1 2 7 0 0 0 8.6 7.7 Electricity (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Total generation 2 565 3 275 3 736 4 404 100 100 100 1.3 1.2 Coal 1 055 1 001 981 1 094 31 26 25 –0.2 0.4 Oil 221 139 117 57 4 3 1 –1.7 –3.5 Gas 191 664 891 1 362 20 24 31 3.0 2.9 Nuclear 795 998 918 610 30 25 14 –0.8 –2.0 Hydro 286 304 399 432 9 11 10 2.8 1.4 Biomass and waste 14 84 146 217 3 4 5 5.7 3.8 Wind 0 78 259 552 2 7 13 12.7 8.1 Geothermal 3 5 8 14 0 0 0 5.0 4.3 Solar 0 2 15 58 0 0 1 24.1 15.0 Tide and wave 0 1 1 9 0 0 0 10.1 11.9 CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Total CO 2 emissions 4 084 3 944 4 011 4 176 100 100 100 0.2 0.2 Coal 1 759 1 223 1 134 1 085 31 28 26 –0.7 –0.5 Oil 1 667 1 706 1 713 1 691 43 43 41 0.0 –0.0 Gas 658 1 015 1 164 1 399 26 29 34 1.4 1.3 Power generation 1 517 1 408 1 440 1 547 100 100 100 0.2 0.4 Coal 1 194 992 957 951 70 66 61 –0.4 –0.2 Oil 196 109 81 40 8 6 3 –2.8 –3.9 Gas 127 307 401 556 22 28 36 2.7 2.4 Total final consumption 2 398 2 353 2 405 2 470 100 100 100 0.2 0.2 Coal 528 198 152 115 8 6 5 –2.7 –2.2 Oil 1 357 1 478 1 518 1 539 63 63 62 0.3 0.2 Gas 513 677 735 816 29 31 33 0.8 0.7 616 World Energy Outlook 2007- ANNEXES
Alternative Policy Scenario: European Union Energy demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total primary energy demand 1 846 1 844 100 100 0.2 0.1 –3.4 –8.1 Coal 218 142 12 8 –3.7 –3.2 –24.9 –48.5 Oil 650 595 35 32 –0.3 –0.5 –4.0 –11.3 Gas 492 529 27 29 1.0 0.7 –3.2 –13.3 Nuclear 269 230 15 12 0.3 –0.5 12.5 44.9 Hydro 34 39 2 2 2.8 1.6 0.4 4.6 Biomass and waste 143 213 8 12 5.5 3.8 13.0 16.6 Other renewables 38 97 2 5 11.5 8.5 15.5 34.7 Power generation 743 732 100 100 0.1 –0.0 –4.5 –9.4 Coal 161 102 22 14 –3.9 –3.4 –30.6 –56.0 Oil 25 11 3 2 –2.9 –4.3 –1.0 –9.9 Gas 165 196 22 27 2.3 1.6 –4.0 –17.8 Nuclear 269 230 36 31 0.3 –0.5 12.5 44.9 Hydro 34 39 5 5 2.8 1.6 0.4 4.6 Biomass and waste 54 75 7 10 6.3 3.8 22.3 14.8 Other renewables 33 79 5 11 11.1 7.9 9.9 21.2 Other energy sector 131 121 100 100 –0.8 –0.6 –2.4 –8.3 Total final consumption 1 354 1 394 100 100 0.4 0.3 –2.9 –8.7 Coal 32 22 2 2 –3.0 –2.6 –2.2 –8.3 Oil 591 550 44 39 –0.2 –0.4 –4.3 –11.9 of which transport 347 332 26 24 –0.4 –0.3 –5.7 –13.3 Gas 311 317 23 23 0.5 0.3 –2.9 –10.8 Electricity 261 277 19 20 1.0 0.6 –4.4 –15.0 Heat 65 72 5 5 –0.8 0.1 –1.1 –2.4 Biomass and waste 89 138 7 10 5.2 3.8 8.1 17.7 of which biofuels 21 41 2 3 21.2 10.8 19.2 28.6 Other renewables 5 18 0 1 15.4 12.0 84.5 162.0 Electricity (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) Total generation 3 564 3 783 100 100 0.9 0.6 –4.6 –14.1 Coal 667 445 19 12 –4.0 –3.2 –32.0 –59.3 Oil 117 54 3 1 –1.7 –3.7 –0.3 –5.9 Gas 851 948 24 25 2.5 1.4 –4.5 –30.4 Nuclear 1 033 884 29 23 0.3 –0.5 12.5 44.9 Hydro 401 452 11 12 2.8 1.6 0.4 4.6 Biomass and waste 179 249 5 7 7.8 4.4 22.0 14.8 Wind 292 639 8 17 14.0 8.8 12.8 15.7 Geothermal 8 18 0 0 5.7 5.5 6.2 32.6 Solar 16 77 0 2 24.6 16.3 3.6 33.8 Tide and wave 2 18 0 0 12.7 15.3 25.6 107.5 CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) Total CO 2 emissions 3 606 3 244 100 100 –0.9 –0.8 –10.1 –22.3 Coal 837 540 23 17 –3.7 –3.2 –26.2 –50.2 Oil 1 642 1 492 46 46 –0.4 –0.5 –4.1 –11.8 Gas 1 126 1 211 31 37 1.0 0.7 –3.3 –13.5 Power generation 1 130 912 100 100 –2.2 –1.7 –21.5 –41.1 Coal 664 418 59 46 –3.9 –3.4 –30.6 –56.0 Oil 81 36 7 4 –2.9 –4.3 –1.0 –9.7 Gas 385 457 34 50 2.3 1.6 –4.0 –17.8 Total final consumption 2 310 2 177 100 100 –0.2 –0.3 –3.9 –11.9 Coal 148 105 6 5 –2.9 –2.5 –2.3 –8.5 Oil 1 448 1 345 63 62 –0.2 –0.4 –4.6 –12.6 Gas 714 727 31 33 0.5 0.3 –2.9 –10.9 A Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 617
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569: Oil and Gas The production profile
Page 570 and 571: Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573: in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575: and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577: Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579: focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581: The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583: Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585: stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587: Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589: Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591: ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595: Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599: Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601: Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603: Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605: Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607: Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609: Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611: Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615: Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 620 and 621: Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623: Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625: Reference Scenario: Developing coun
Page 626 and 627: Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629: Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631: Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633: Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636: ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
Page 637 and 638: Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640: Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642: international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643: Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647: IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650: ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652: Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654: — (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656: International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658: Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660: Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662: Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664: Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665: Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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