World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 12
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
There is a strong possibility of an even higher rate of gross domestic
product growth in China than we assume in the Reference Scenario.
The High Growth Scenario analyses the energy-related consequences
for China and the rest of the world of China’s GDP growing at an
annual average rate of 7.5% between 2005 and 2030 – 1.5 percentage
points higher than in the Reference Scenario (though GDP grows more
slowly than of late).
China’s total primary energy demand in 2030 reaches a level about
23% higher in the High Growth Scenario than in the Reference
Scenario. Coal makes up 59% of the difference. Oil demand reaches
21.4 mb/d – 30% more than in the Reference Scenario – about twothirds
of this increase coming from the transport sector, where the
vehicle stock reaches 410 million in 2030 (compared with 270 million
in the Reference Scenario). Gas demand also grows faster, mainly
driven by the power sector. The difference in total primary energy
demand is already 10% by 2015 – this is bigger in absolute terms than
Canada’s energy demand in 2005.
China relies more on imported fuels in the High Growth Scenario,
heightening worries about energy security. Though coal production in
China rises by 19% in 2030 with higher coal prices relative to the
Reference Scenario, the development of coal mining and the inland
transport system does not keep pace with the rapid demand growth
and the country’s dependence on coal imports rises. Oil imports are
31% higher in 2030, at 17.2 mb/d. China becomes the world’s biggest
oil importer before 2030.
The cost of China’s energy imports rises sharply in the High Growth
Scenario. In total, China’s cumulative fuel import bill, at $9.3 trillion
(in year-2006 dollars), costs $3.4 trillion more than in the Reference
Scenario. Investment requirements in supply infrastructure are
$5.1 trillion in year-2006 dollars, $1.4 trillion (36%) more than in the
Reference Scenario.
Energy-related CO 2
emissions increase by 2.6 Gt, or 23%, in 2030
relative to the Reference Scenario. This increase is almost equivalent to
the current level of emissions of Russia and Japan combined. In 2030,
China’s emissions approach those of the OECD in total. Local
pollution would also worsen markedly if the government did not
respond vigorously.
Chapter 12 – High Growth Scenario Projections 389