World Energy Outlook 2007

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Key Assumptions The Reference Scenario takes account of government policies and measures that were enacted or adopted by mid-2007. However, not all of these policies are assumed to be fully implemented in the Reference Scenario. Lack of coordination among government departments and over-ambitious targets have resulted in a poor track record of policy implementation. 1 Full implementation of these policies is considered in the Alternative Policy Scenario, along with implementation of other policies which are now in contemplation or seem likely to be adopted. The Reference Scenario projections assume that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow on average by 7.2% per year from 2005 to 2015 (Table 16.1). Growth is assumed to slow thereafter, bringing down the average for the entire Outlook period to 6.3% per year. 2 In the short and medium term, both infrastructure investments and continued market reforms, particularly in the power sector, are expected to support faster growth. The share of agriculture in GDP is assumed to decline by 5 percentage points over the Outlook period, while the share of the services sector rises by 4 percentage points. The output gains from labour migration from agriculture to services and, to a lesser extent, to industry, are expected to continue to contribute to economic growth. Table 16.1: GDP and Population Growth Rates in India in the Reference Scenario (average annual rate of change) 1980-2005 1990-2005 2005-2015 2015-2030 2005-2030 GDP 5.9% 6.0% 7.2% 5.8% 6.3% Population 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% GDP per capita 4.0% 4.2% 5.7% 4.7% 5.1% India’s rate of population growth is declining, from some 2.1% per year in the 1980s to 1.7% per year from 1990 to 2005. This Outlook assumes that the population, which stands at 1.1 billion, will increase by 1.1% per year on average to 2030, reaching 1.45 billion. 3 India’s population is growing faster than China’s. According to the United Nations Population Division, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world in 2031. Over 70% of India’s population lives in rural areas today; this share is expected to drop to 59% by 2030. 1. To address this, Prime Minister Singh created the Energy Coordination Committee in 2005 (see Chapter 15). 2. The High Growth Scenario (Chapter 19) explores the impact on energy demand of even higher growth than is assumed here. 3. Population assumptions are based on the United Nations’ report, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (UNPD, 2007). 464 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Most energy prices in India are controlled by the government and thus do not move in line with international prices. Electricity and gas prices are particularly heavily subsidised (see Chapter 15). The government had planned to phase out the subsidies on LPG and kerosene but with recent high oil prices, subsidy reform has stalled. The Reference Scenario projections assume that subsidies initially remain in place, leading to distortions in inter-fuel competition and energy use, but are gradually reduced over the second half of the projection period. Primary Energy Demand Primary energy demand in India is projected to increase from 537 Mtoe in 2005 to 770 Mtoe in 2015 and to 1 299 Mtoe in 2030 (Table 16.2). Demand grew by 3.5% per year in 1990-2005. Energy demand growth is somewhat faster in 2005-2015 at 3.7% per annum, slowing again to 3.5% in 2015-2030. As GDP growth is faster over the Outlook period, intensity improves more quickly than in the past. In 2025, India’s energy demand passes that of the entire OECD Pacific region; it equals 60% today. By 2030, India is the thirdlargest energy consumer in the world, after China and the United States; today, it ranks fourth (Figure 16.1). Table 16.2: Indian Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario (Mtoe) 1990 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2030* Coal 106 164 208 330 620 4.5% Oil 63 114 129 188 328 3.8% Gas 10 21 29 48 93 4.8% Nuclear 2 4 5 16 33 8.3% Hydro 6 6 9 13 22 3.9% Biomass 133 149 158 171 194 0.8% Other renewables 0 0 1 4 9 11.7% Total 320 459 537 770 1 299 3.6% Total excluding biomass 186 311 379 599 1 105 4.4% 16 * Average annual rate of growth. Coal remains the dominant fuel in India’s energy mix over the Outlook period. Its share increases from 39% in 2005 to 48% in 2030, by which time almost three-quarters is used in power generation. Demand for oil, mostly for transport, increases by two-and-a-half times, but its share rises only one percentage point, from 24% of total primary energy demand in 2005 to 25% Chapter 16 – Reference Scenario Demand Projections 465
Page 1 and 2:
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4:
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6:
FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10:
Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12:
Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14:
Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16:
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18:
Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19 and 20:
Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 21 and 22:
16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
Page 23 and 24:
List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26:
3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28:
9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30:
13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32:
18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34:
2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36:
11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38:
List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40:
16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41:
World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45:
above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47:
Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49:
Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51:
By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53:
of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55:
There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57:
India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59:
of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61:
second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63:
Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65:
high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67:
Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69:
$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71:
In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73:
equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76:
CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78:
standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80:
Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
Page 81 and 82:
Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84:
Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
Page 85 and 86:
Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
Page 87 and 88:
It is certainly possible that decli
Page 89 and 90:
Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
Page 91 and 92:
developments in clean coal technolo
Page 93 and 94:
in the form of coking coal, grow st
Page 95 and 96:
(Table 1.8). India and China experi
Page 97 and 98:
Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100:
policy implementation is critical:
Page 101 and 102:
transition economies, because there
Page 103 and 104:
15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
Page 105 and 106:
Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
Page 107 and 108:
Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
Page 109 and 110:
Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
Page 111 and 112:
Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
Page 113 and 114:
The regional effect on oil imports
Page 115 and 116:
in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
Page 117:
The High Growth Scenario projection
Page 120 and 121:
Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
Page 122 and 123:
having rebounded in the early part
Page 124 and 125:
80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
Page 126 and 127:
SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
Page 128 and 129:
For both China and India, the story
Page 130 and 131:
imports are projected to rise furth
Page 132 and 133:
equires $956 billion of capital spe
Page 134 and 135:
Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
Page 136 and 137:
Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
Page 138 and 139:
China and India in the Global Econo
Page 140 and 141:
production and exports of manufactu
Page 142 and 143:
International Trade and Financial F
Page 144 and 145:
total coal use in 2005, and the sec
Page 146 and 147:
total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
Page 148 and 149:
fear that Chinese and Indian export
Page 150 and 151:
SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
Page 152 and 153:
Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
Page 154 and 155:
Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
Page 156 and 157:
etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
Page 158 and 159:
Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
Page 160 and 161:
The results presented here should b
Page 162 and 163:
Energy Security in a Global Market
Page 164 and 165:
■ Adequate investment in producti
Page 166 and 167:
efined products are global commodit
Page 168 and 169:
Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
Page 170 and 171:
Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
Page 172 and 173:
Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
Page 174 and 175:
Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
Page 176 and 177:
Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
Page 178 and 179:
Energy savings Diversification of f
Page 180 and 181:
In China, oil security has emerged
Page 182 and 183:
deprive the companies of profits an
Page 184 and 185:
western markets. Any disruption to
Page 186 and 187:
2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
Page 188 and 189:
Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
Page 190 and 191:
imports is demonstrated by the Alte
Page 192 and 193:
prices to all consuming countries m
Page 194 and 195:
Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
Page 196 and 197:
In the past two-and-a-half decades,
Page 198 and 199:
Transport contributes roughly a fif
Page 200 and 201:
Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
Page 202 and 203:
Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
Page 204 and 205:
egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
Page 206 and 207:
Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
Page 208 and 209:
Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
Page 210 and 211:
illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
Page 212 and 213:
Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
Page 214 and 215:
Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
Page 216 and 217:
The capital costs involved in stabi
Page 218 and 219:
Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
Page 220 and 221:
Technologies involving the absorpti
Page 222 and 223:
There are a number of barriers to t
Page 224 and 225:
scheduled to operate in the first h
Page 227 and 228:
CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
Page 229 and 230:
■ Conserving energy: Conservation
Page 231 and 232:
The results of our Alternative Poli
Page 233 and 234:
increasing need for oil and gas. Th
Page 235 and 236:
Co-operation is a two-way street; I
Page 237 and 238:
Technology Co-operation and Collabo
Page 239 and 240:
continue to make an important contr
Page 241 and 242:
een registered, are being validated
Page 243:
PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 246 and 247:
The Political Context 1 Established
Page 248 and 249:
percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
Page 250 and 251:
education. However, the government
Page 252 and 253:
Capital accumulation was boosted by
Page 254 and 255:
several times since the beginning o
Page 256 and 257:
Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
Page 258 and 259:
year over the projection period, re
Page 260 and 261:
infrastructure, housing and service
Page 263 and 264:
CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
Page 265 and 266:
In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
Page 267 and 268:
Industry has long been the largest
Page 269 and 270:
Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
Page 271 and 272:
Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
Page 273 and 274:
Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
Page 275 and 276:
Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
Page 277 and 278:
projects are still the largest alte
Page 279 and 280:
of these businesses. In its early s
Page 281 and 282:
and retail competition, but much wo
Page 283 and 284:
Access to Modern Energy China has a
Page 285 and 286:
CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
Page 287 and 288:
growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290:
Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
Page 291 and 292:
with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
Page 293 and 294:
exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
Page 295 and 296:
energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
Page 297 and 298:
Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
Page 299 and 300:
to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
Page 301 and 302:
Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
Page 303 and 304:
develop their own-brand vehicles in
Page 305 and 306:
standards are most stringent for he
Page 307 and 308:
nearly one-fifth of the increase in
Page 309 and 310:
in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312:
Appliance efficiency improvements w
Page 313 and 314:
FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316:
Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318:
generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320:
CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
Page 321 and 322:
Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
Page 323 and 324:
Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
Page 325 and 326:
Oil Refining China’s refining cap
Page 327 and 328:
Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
Page 329 and 330:
Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
Page 331 and 332:
which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
Page 333 and 334:
Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
Page 335 and 336:
e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338:
coal resources lie in the provinces
Page 339 and 340:
Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342:
of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344:
An outside-plan spot market has exi
Page 345 and 346:
Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
Page 347 and 348:
Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
Page 349 and 350:
China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352:
Capacity Requirements In the past t
Page 353 and 354:
to consumers approximately 70% of a
Page 355 and 356:
8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
Page 364 and 365:
Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
Page 368 and 369:
Reference Scenario. More than two-t
Page 370 and 371:
The most striking difference concer
Page 372 and 373:
The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
Page 374 and 375:
power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377:
of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
Page 378 and 379:
educing industrial consumption, eit
Page 380 and 381:
towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383:
Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385:
Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387:
improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389:
Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391:
Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
Page 394 and 395:
two-thirds of incremental oil deman
Page 396 and 397:
Of the main final sectors, the tran
Page 398 and 399:
Higher international prices also bo
Page 400 and 401:
128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
Page 402 and 403:
generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
Page 404 and 405:
Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409:
Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411:
Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413:
Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417: Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419: the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421: The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423: APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435: in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443: ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454: ■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
Page 455 and 456: and production, and in liquefied na
Page 457 and 458: (because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462: of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465: CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 469 and 470: Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472: Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
Page 473 and 474: 80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476: The transport sector currently cons
Page 477 and 478: Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
Page 479 and 480: Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
Page 481 and 482: Biomass use in urban households 14
Page 483 and 484: Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
Page 485 and 486: Other Sectors The services sector a
Page 487 and 488: from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489: Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493: Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495: and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497: expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499: For crude oil alone, India's import
Page 500 and 501: Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503: come from offshore non-associated g
Page 504 and 505: Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507: 98 billion tonnes, principally in J
Page 508 and 509: Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
Page 510 and 511: 15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
Page 512 and 513: Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
Page 514 and 515: India's coal-fired power plants are
Page 516 and 517:
Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
Page 518 and 519:
Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521:
8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523:
India receives abundant solar radia
Page 524 and 525:
in power generation alone is estima
Page 526 and 527:
In 2005, revenues from electricity
Page 528 and 529:
Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534:
CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536:
Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538:
energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
Page 541 and 542:
Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544:
Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546:
Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
Page 547 and 548:
1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552:
to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554:
Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556:
Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558:
Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559:
tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565:
period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567:
Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569:
Oil and Gas The production profile
Page 570 and 571:
Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573:
in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577:
Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579:
focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581:
The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583:
Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587:
Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589:
Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591:
ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595:
Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 618 and 619:
Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623:
Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
Page 626 and 627:
Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629:
Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
Page 637 and 638:
Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
show all

World Energy Outlook 2007

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?