World Energy Outlook 2007

SPOTLIGHT
Can China and India Ever Mirror Western Lifestyles?
In principle, the continued economic and social development of China
and India need not be incompatible with protecting the local or global
environment. But major shifts in resource use, policies and technologies –
as well as public attitudes and expectations – will be needed worldwide.
Quite simply, the resource-intensive economic model currently being
pursued throughout the world cannot be sustained indefinitely. A level of
per-capita income in China and India comparable with that of the
industrialised countries would, on today’s model, require a level of energy
use beyond the world’s energy resource endowment and the absorptive
capacity of the planet’s ecosystem.
A couple of simple calculations illustrate this very clearly: if per-capita oil
use in China and India were to rise to the current level in the United States,
their oil demand would increase by a combined 160 mb/d – almost twice
the current level of world oil demand (not allowing for future increases
in population). Without major changes elsewhere, total world demand
of close to 240 mb/d would deplete remaining proven reserves fully in just
15 years, and estimated ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas liquid
resources (including proven reserves, reserves growth and undiscovered
resources) in 26 years. 12 Similarly, if per-capita CO 2
emissions in China
and India reached current US levels, again assuming no major departures
from trends elsewhere, world emissions would be three times higher than
today. The implications for climate change of such an increase could be
catastrophic. Even sustained global fossil-energy consumption at current
levels risks causing a substantial increase in CO 2
concentrations and global
temperatures.
Up to now, China and India have focused on economic growth on
traditional lines on the path to national goals – including reducing
poverty, modernising lifestyles and raising comfort levels. But there is
a growing recognition in both countries of the need to seek out a
radically different development path to that adopted in the west,
leapfrogging to new technologies and involving different lifestyles.
There are some signs of this happening. The sheer size of the two
economies and the pace of their economic growth makes it essential
that all countries – China, India, the industrialised countries and the
rest of the global community – co-operate on moving quickly towards
a genuinely sustainable lifestyle.
5
12. Based on reserves estimates from the Oil and Gas Journal (18 December 2006) and
the US Geological Survey’s mean estimates for reserves growth and undiscovered resources
(USGS, 2000).
Chapter 5 - Global Environmental Repercussions 215