World Energy Outlook 2007

Road
Road energy use increases more than four-fold, accounting for over 80% of
the overall growth in transport energy use. Aviation, navigation and rail use
make up the rest. Light duty vehicles (LDVs) – cars and sports utility
vehicles (SUVs) – alone account for half the increase in road transport
energy use. Gasoline represents 90% of LDV fuel demand. Trucks also see
rapid growth in their energy use, almost entirely in the form of diesel. 9 In
recent years, an important reason for increasing truck use has been
bottlenecks in the rail capacity to transport coal. These bottlenecks are
expected to be gradually eliminated. Overall, diesel use in road transport is
expected to grow more quickly than gasoline use, due to the gradual phase
out of gasoline in trucks and to relatively lower fuel-economy
improvements in trucks compared with cars. By 2030, diesel is expected to
account for around half of road oil demand, up from 37% in 2005. The
share of oil in road transport fuels is expected to increase over time, as
alternative fuels – mainly biofuels and natural gas – remain confined to
niche markets in those provinces which enact specific policies and build the
necessary infrastructure (Box 9.2). Alternative fuels represent only 3% of
road transport fuel in 2030.
The vehicle stock in China has increased almost seven-fold since 1990,
from 5.5 million vehicles to almost 37 million in 2006. 10 The most
spectacular increase has been in cars. China surpassed Germany in 2004
and Japan in 2006 to become the second-largest car market in the world.
We project the total number of vehicles on Chinese roads to increase by
some 230 million over the Outlook period, reaching 270 million in 2030
(Table 9.6). LDVs will make up the lion’s share of the new vehicles, going
from 22 million to more than 200 million. China overtakes the United
States as the largest car market in the world around 2015 (Figure 9.6).
Growth in the high- and middle-income population, rapid infrastructure
development and the emergence of cheap domestic brands are the main
factors behind growth in vehicles sales over the next decade (Box 9.3). In
the longer term, growth is expected to slow as demand in the major cities
in the coastal area begins to reach saturation. In some cases, delays in
expanding the road infrastructure may constrain vehicle ownership. As
heavy industry is gradually relocated outside city centres, cars and trucks
will account for an increasing proportion of local pollution.
9. In 2000 the Chinese government mandated that as of 2010 all trucks should run on diesel, as a
measure to increase efficiency and contain demand growth.
10. These figures do not include more than 60 million two-wheelers currently in use on Chinese
roads.
298 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS