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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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- Page 178 and 179: Energy savings Diversification of f
- Page 180 and 181: In China, oil security has emerged
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- Page 194 and 195: Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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- Page 202 and 203: Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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- Page 208 and 209: Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
- Page 210 and 211: illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
- Page 212 and 213: Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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- Page 216 and 217: The capital costs involved in stabi
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- Page 220 and 221: Technologies involving the absorpti
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- Page 245 and 246: CHAPTER 7 POLITICAL, ECONOMIC A
- Page 247 and 248: central government and the CPC reta
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- Page 253 and 254: Economic Challenges and Prospects A
- Page 255 and 256: SPOTLIGHT Will Government Efforts t
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urning of fossil fuels, the loss of
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Table 8.2: Selected Targets for Imp
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In August 2006, the State Council i
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to bring domestic oil prices closer
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Yet there may be some transferable
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Key Assumptions The energy projecti
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Table 9.2: Energy Intensity in Sele
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Coal remains the dominant fuel in C
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In absolute terms, industry is the
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chemicals and petrochemicals, and n
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Iron and Steel The iron and steel s
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China is the world’s largest prod
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Road Road energy use increases more
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million Figure 9.6: New Car Sales i
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Table 9.7: Vehicle Ownership by Pro
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Other Modes In 2005, aviation, navi
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Box 9.4: Natural Gas Use in Towns a
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Appliances Stock and Efficiency Fou
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Environmental Implications Local Ai
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Box 9.5: Household Use of Biomass a
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energy efficiency improves. However
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Figure 9.12: China CDM CO 2 Reducti
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Oil Supply Oil Resources and Reserv
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Oil Production 3 Oil production in
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Box 10.1: Restructuring of China’
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will achieve this, as capacity outs
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In the Reference Scenario, net oil
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For example, the current value of C
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Figure 10.7: Natural Gas Discoverie
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Gas Imports China imported gas - as
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In the Reference Scenario, the Turk
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and sulphur levels can vary enormou
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Box 10.3: Coal Mining Safety in Chi
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network at roughly double the natio
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indigenous coal supply costs are ex
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The establishment of the State Elec
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China added 18 GW of supercritical
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Box 10.4: Carbon Capture and Storag
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Most of the new generating capacity
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South East Central North West Figur
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eturn to foreign investors on wind
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phase of a wind project must be mad
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will be essential. The Agricultural
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CHAPTER 11 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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uncertainty stems from how policies
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Figure 11.1: China’s Primary Ener
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dependence. CTL production reaches
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emissions began to rise again in 20
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Box 11.1: Impact of Climate Change
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Summary of Results The projected el
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Table 11.4: Key Policy Assumptions
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Table 11.5: China’s Industrial En
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Table 11.6: Key Policy Assumptions
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Figure 11.8: Savings in China’s T
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to levels in the United States. Chi
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implemented in the scenario mean th
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pay for themselves, as savings in f
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CHAPTER 12 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PRO
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economy to foreign investment. Chin
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Demand for non-fossil energy source
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Implications for Energy Markets and
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Table 12.2: Incremental Oil Product
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Implications for Investment To meet
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In the High Growth Scenario, NO x e
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CHAPTER 13 FOCUS ON THE COASTAL REG
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Figure 13.1: Provinces and Regions
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and technology. One basic assumptio
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Table 13.3: Primary Energy Demand i
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the coast are crucial because they
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Table 13.4: Electricity Generation
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Figure 13.7: Car Ownership and GDP
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esources, 19% of oil and 11% of nat
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12 Figure 13.10: CO 2 Emissions per
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CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Grow
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CHAPTER 14 POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND
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In total, India has 23 official lan
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Figure 14.1: GDP per Capita by Stat
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In India, labour productivity, meas
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SPOTLIGHT Will Economic Growth Solv
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$103 billion in 2005. The share in
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of growth in energy demand. How the
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50% Figure 14.6: Share of Gross Cap
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This will depend on having sufficie
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India's Energy Sector India, the sl
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Figure 15.1: India's Fossil Fuel Pr
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SPOTLIGHT Why Does the Government N
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Unreliable power damages business a
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■ urban, industrial and commercia
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These reforms have achieved their o
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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Energy Policy Challenges While ackn
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to 2006. More efficient vehicles co
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than one-and-a-half times the India
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Key Assumptions The Reference Scena
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in 2030. Natural gas is the fastest
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Coal accounts for 41% of industrial
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ased DRI plants are at various stag
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Infrastructure construction is driv
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in 2030. Strong vehicle growth will
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Table 16.3: Four-Wheel Vehicle Emis
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75% of India’s residential demand
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Residential consumption of natural
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access to electricity between rural
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Box 16.6: Energy and Water Use in t
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emissions come from burning coal, m
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CHAPTER 17 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 17.1: Oil Discoveries in Ind
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Our oil-production projections are
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maintaining export capacity beyond
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Box 17.1: India's Emergency Oil Sto
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In the last ten years, 90 non-assoc
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last seven years in the Krishna-God
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following decade. But major new cap
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Figure 17.8: Major Coal Fields and
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Box 17.2: Coal Mining Productivity
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southern coasts. At the high coal p
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owned by the central government. Th
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Box 17.3: Coal-Fired Power Plant Te
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Oil plays a minor role in electrici
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projected to amount to 410 GW, incl
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India started using ethanol recentl
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Oil and Gas The Reference Scenario
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could increase by nearly a third be
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(mainly related to tariff policy),
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in 1991 - right when the market ope
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implementation delays and escalatin
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Background and Assumptions Like Chi
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coal savings. Coal demand grows muc
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nuclear power; lower electricity de
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Figure 18.4: India’s CO 2 Emissio
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Results by Sector Power Generation
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■ ■ The efficiency of the power
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Gas-fired power generation accounts
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Table 18.3: Key Policies in India's
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Transport Policy Assumptions and Ef
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Scenario by 28% more in 2030 than i
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energy demand over the Outlook peri
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Figure 18.10: Reduction in Final En
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Figure 18.13: Payback Periods for V
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CHAPTER 19 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PRO
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Scenario and, in 2015-2030, 1.7 per
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Biomass is the only fuel for which
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economy boosts output in manufactur
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Despite higher oil recovery rates,
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Total oil investment is projected t
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In the High Growth Scenario all hou
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CHAPTER 20 FOCUS ON ENERGY POVERTY
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Table 20.1: Number of People in Ind
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Figure 20.1: Electricity Access and
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Table 20.2: Energy Development Inde
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Table 20.3: Costs of Electrifying H
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Blindness is also more prevalent am
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Box 20.3: Deepam LPG Scheme in Andh
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Table 20.4: Cities with More than O
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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Oil and Gas boe barrels of oil equi
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Heavy Petroleum Products Heavy petr
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Observed Decline Rate The productio
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European Union Austria, Belgium, Bu
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ANNEX C ACRONYMS APS CAFE CBM CCGT
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UNDP UNEP UNFCCC USGS WEM WHO WTI W
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Chapter 3: International Trade and
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Chapter 5: Global Environmental Rep
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United Nations Statistics Division
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United Nations Environment Programm
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Pan, K. (2005), “The Depth Distri
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World Bank (2007), Doing Business i
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Chapter 17: Reference Scenario Supp
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Pucher, J., N. Korattyswaropam, N.
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