World Energy Outlook 2007

Appliance efficiency improvements will offset part of the impact on
residential electricity demand of rising appliance ownership. Chinese
appliances are relatively inefficient compared to similar products in OECD
countries. For example, the most popular Chinese refrigerator has a volume
of 220 litres and uses on average 1.2-1.3 kWh per day, compared with
around 0.8 kWh per day for a European refrigerator of similar size with class
A labelling. However, the government is adopting minimum efficiency
standards and has launched various labelling programmes. The gradual
phase-out of subsidies to residential electricity will also encourage more
rational and efficient use of appliances.
Other Sectors
Energy demand in the services sector accounted for 4% of total final
consumption in 2005. The value added of the services sector grew at a rate of
12.7% per year, and energy consumption at 8.2% per year, from 1990 to 2000.
However, from 2000 to 2005, growth of value added slowed to 9.9% per year,
while energy consumption grew by 9.1% per year. We expect the value added
of the services sector to grow faster than that of either the industrial sector or
overall GDP over the projection period, partly as a result of the government’s
efforts to adjust China’s economic structure. 19 The energy use is projected to
grow at 6.9% per year from 2005 to 2015 and slow to 3.3% per year from
2015 to 2030.
Electricity currently accounts for 27% of energy consumption by services in
China. This share is projected to increase to 33% by 2015 and 44% by
2030. Coal’s share falls from 11% to 3%, while that of gas rises from 8% to
11%. Use of renewables in this sector, excluding biomass and waste, is
forecast to grow at 7.1% per year in 2005-2030, reaching a 4% share. Oil
currently accounts for 50%, but this share may be inflated by a statistical
convention in China that includes some commercial transportation in the
services sector.
Energy demand in the agriculture sector accounted for 3.6% of total final
consumption in 2005, although the sector accounts for 44% of employment
(World Bank, 2007). Just over half energy use is oil, with the rest split fairly
evenly between coal and electricity. Energy use increases by 1.3% per year
over 2005-2030, a much slower rate than in all other sectors. This reflects
the declining share of agriculture in China’s economy.
9
19. The 11 th Five-Year Plan aims to increase the share of the services sector in GDP by three
percentage points to 43% by 2010.
Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 309