World Energy Outlook 2007

The regional effect on oil imports and exports of changes in oil demand and
production differs. China and India see their net imports increase sharply, as the
increase in demand outstrips the growth in indigenous output. By contrast, all
other importing regions – notably North America – need to import less oil, as
their demand falls and their indigenous output rises in response to higher prices
(Table 1.16). Overall, OPEC and other exporting countries generally increase
their exports. Total inter-regional oil trade reaches 67 mb/d in 2030, compared
with 65 mb/d in the Reference Scenario. Trade as a share of total consumption
remains stable at 56% in both the Reference and High Growth Scenarios.
1
1.0
Figure 1.22: Incremental Oil Production by Region in 2030 in
the High Growth Scenario Relative to the Reference Scenario
0.8
mb/d
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
OPEC China OECD North
America
Transition
economies
Other
non-OPEC
India
OECD
Europe
OECD
Pacific
Conventional Non-conventional*
* Oil sands, shale oil, extra-heavy oil, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids.
Table 1.16: Net Oil Imports by Major Importing Region in
the High Growth Scenario (mb/d)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario in 2030
2015 2030 mb/d %
OECD North America 13.0 12.7 –2.2 –15
OECD Europe 11.1 11.6 –0.5 –4
OECD Pacific 7.5 7.2 –0.5 –6
Developing Asia 15.2 30.3 5.2 21
China 8.3 17.2 4.1 31
India 3.2 7.7 1.6 27
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