World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario (Mtoe)
1990 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005-
2015* 2030*
Coal 534 1 094 1 869 2 399 5.5% 3.2%
Oil 116 327 543 808 5.2% 3.7%
Gas 13 42 109 199 10.0% 6.4%
Nuclear 0 14 32 67 8.8% 6.5%
Hydro 11 34 62 86 6.1% 3.8%
Biomass 200 227 225 227 –0.1% 0.0%
Other renewables – 3 12 33 14.4% 9.9%
Total 874 1 742 2 851 3 819 5.1% 3.2%
Total excl. biomass 673 1 515 2 626 3 592 5.7% 3.5%
* Average annual rate of growth.
Box 9.1: Recent Energy Trends in China
In February 2007 the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) released
the Statistical Communiqué of The People’s Republic of China on the 2006
National Economic and Social Development. Also, in July 2007 the NBS
issued revised GDP and energy intensity figures by province. These 2006
data are useful to understand the current momentum of China’s energy
sector and the data are incorporated in our analysis. Highlights include the
following:
Real GDP increased strongly in 2006, by 11.1% over 2005. The growth
rate of the agriculture, manufacturing and mining, and services sectors is
5%, 13% and 10.8%, respectively.
Output of heavy industries continued to grow rapidly in 2006. Crude
steel production increased by 19.7% from 2005 to 423 million tonnes,
and cement production by 15.5% to 12 billion tonnes. Production of
ethylene increased by 24.5% from 2005 to 9.4 million tonnes.
Total energy consumption increased by 9.3% over 2005. Coal
consumption increased by 9.6%, crude oil consumption by 7.1% and
natural gas consumption by 19.9%.
Overall energy intensity fell by 1.3% – well below the government’s
target of 4% per year, though reversing the previous rise in energy
intensity. All the provinces, except Beijing which reduced intensity
by 5.25%, fell short of this target rate of energy intensity improvement
(see Chapter 13), highlighting the considerable challenges faced in
implementation of supporting measures.
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Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 287