World Energy Outlook 2007

Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Intensity by Region and Scenario, 2005-2030
Transition
economies
OECD
Other developing
countries
India
China
–70% –60% –50% –40% –30% –20% –10% 0%
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
High Growth Scenario
Implications for Climate Change
There now exists a major body of scientific evidence that rising greenhouse-gas
concentrations in the atmosphere resulting from fossil-energy combustion and
other human activities are contributing to rising global temperatures and to
changes in climate patterns. Today, the link between greenhouse-gas emissions
and climate change is accepted by the overwhelming majority of scientists, even
if the magnitude and nature of the changes that will follow from a given rise in
emissions are still very uncertain. The primary source of the increased
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial period
has been the burning of fossil fuels, with land-use change providing another
significant, but smaller, contribution.
The latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concludes that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse-gas concentrations, notably CO 2
(Box 5.3). Continued
greenhouse-gas emissions at or above current rates would drive atmospheric
concentrations even higher, causing further warming and inducing many changes
in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be
larger than those observed during the 20th century (IPCC, 2007). These
conclusions were somewhat stronger than those of the previous assessment,
reflecting important advances in the knowledge and understanding of climate
change. Even if concentrations are stabilised, some anthropogenic warming and
rises in sea levels are expected to continue for centuries, due to the time-scales
associated with climate processes and feedbacks.
204 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA