World Energy Outlook 2007

esources does not match consumers’ needs. Production increases in all other
regions, except OECD Europe (Table 1.7). Rising output of brown coal in Europe
is insufficient to compensate for the continued decline in European hard coal
production as remaining subsidies are eliminated and mines are closed in several
countries. The global output of steam coal grows faster than that of both coking
coal and brown coal (Figure 1.10). By 2030, steam coal accounts for 82% of total
production in energy terms, compared with 78% in 2005.
Table 1.7: World Coal Production in the Reference Scenario
(million tonnes of coal equivalent)
1980 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005-
2030*
OECD 1 378 1 384 1 433 1 612 1 843 1.0%
North America 672 835 859 1 010 1 172 1.3%
Europe 603 306 276 244 218 –0.9%
Pacific 104 243 299 358 452 1.7%
Transition economies 515 306 343 421 455 1.1%
Russia n.a. 167 199 286 340 2.2%
Developing countries 677 1 487 2 378 3 689 4 876 2.9%
China 444 928 1 636 2 604 3 334 2.9%
India 77 209 266 358 644 3.6%
Other Asia 47 115 206 369 476 3.4%
Middle East 1 1 1 1 1 0.5%
Africa 100 186 202 247 285 1.4%
Latin America 9 48 67 111 136 2.9%
World 2 570 3 176 4 154 5 723 7 173 2.2%
European Union n.a. 306 280 231 183 –1.7%
* Average annual rate of growth.
Global inter-regional trade in hard coal is projected to grow at a rate of 3% per
year, more than doubling from 648 Mtce (721 million tonnes) in 2005 to
1 354 Mtce (1 523 Mt) in 2030. Between 2000 and 2006, hard-coal trade grew
by 5% per year. The share of total world hard-coal output that is traded between
WEO regions rises from 17% in 2005 to 20% in 2030. Steam coal accounts for
most of the growth in hard-coal trade. OECD Asia remains the largest net
importer of coal, while India catches up with OECD Europe. European imports
grow very slowly. China’s net imports grow substantially in volume terms,
reaching 92 Mtce (133 Mt) in 2030. They represent only 3% of the country’s
total coal needs, but 9% of inter-regional coal trade. Indian imports grow sevenfold
and reach 18% of internationally traded coal in 2030. US exports, mainly
90 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA