World Energy Outlook 2007

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Background and Assumptions 390 Energy Demand 391 Implications for Energy Markets and Supply Security 395 Implications for Investment 399 Environmental Implications 400 Local Air Pollution 400 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 401 13 Focus on the Coastal Region 403 Highlights 403 Background and Assumptions 404 Energy Outlook 407 Primary Energy Demand 407 Energy Demand by Sector 411 Power Generation 412 Energy Supply 416 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 418 Appendix: China Coastal Reference Scenario Projections 420 Part C: India’s Energy Prospects 423 14 15 Political, Economic and Demographic Context 425 Highlights 425 The Political Context 426 The Economic Context 427 Economic Growth and Structure 427 Drivers of Growth 431 Economic Challenges 434 Demographic Trends 440 Overview of the Energy Sector 443 Highlights 443 India’s Energy Sector 444 Energy Administration and Policy 450 Energy Policy Challenges 458 Price and Subsidy Reform 458 Energy Efficiency 459 Infrastructure Investment 460 Energy Access 461 Environment 461 18 World Energy Outlook 2007
16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Projections 463 Highlights 463 Key Assumptions 464 Primary Energy Demand 465 Final Energy Demand 466 Industry Sector 467 Iron and Steel Industry 469 Chemicals and Petrochemicals 470 Other Industries 471 Transport Sector 472 Road Transport 473 Residential Sector 476 Other Sectors 483 Energy-Related Emissions 484 Pollutant Emissions 484 CO 2 Emissions 485 Reference Scenario Supply Projections 489 Highlights 489 Oil Supply 490 Resources and Reserves 490 Oil Production 491 Oil Refining 493 Oil Trade 495 Natural Gas Supply 497 Resources and Reserves 497 Production 500 Gas Imports 501 Coal Supply 503 Resources and Reserves 503 Coal Production 504 Coal Imports 509 Power Generation 510 Overview of the Power Sector 510 Power Generation Mix 511 Power Generation Economics 517 Renewable Energy 518 Investment 520 Oil and Gas 521 Coal 521 Electricity 521 Focus on Investment Challenges in India’s Power Sector 522 Table of Contents 19
Page 1 and 2: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 3 and 4: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
Page 9 and 10: Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
Page 11 and 12: Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
Page 13 and 14: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
Page 17 and 18: Explaining China’s and India’s
Page 19: Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
Page 23 and 24: List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
Page 25 and 26: 3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
Page 27 and 28: 9.7 International Comparison of Fle
Page 29 and 30: 13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
Page 31 and 32: 18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
Page 33 and 34: 2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
Page 35 and 36: 11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
Page 37 and 38: List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
Page 39 and 40: 16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
Page 41: World Energy Outlook Series World E
Page 44 and 45: above current levels in 2030. To ac
Page 46 and 47: Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
Page 48 and 49: Reference Scenario, primary energy
Page 50 and 51: By contrast, faster implementation
Page 52 and 53: of this increase. China is by far t
Page 54 and 55: There are large potential gains to
Page 56 and 57: India are now so big that they are
Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71:
In line with last year’s Outlook,
Page 72 and 73:
equilibrium for international trade
Page 75 and 76:
CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342:
of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358:
undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360:
China designated biofuels as a prio
Page 361:
could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
Page 366 and 367:
and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393:
On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407:
The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415:
incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417:
Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421:
The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423:
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429:
The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435:
in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437:
Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460:
Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489:
Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493:
Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499:
For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503:
come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521:
8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523:
India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531:
were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540:
18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544:
Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550:
35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552:
to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554:
Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563:
Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575:
and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577:
Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581:
The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585:
stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621:
Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623:
Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631:
Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642:
international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643:
Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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